Hypothesis Tree

Use this skill to run Hypothesis Tree as a practical consulting method, not as a generic framework explanation.

Method Notes

• Each branch must be testable.
• Define disconfirmation evidence, not only supporting evidence.

Required Inputs

Collect or infer these inputs before execution:

• core question
• candidate explanations
• available evidence
• decision deadline

If an input is missing, do not block automatically. Mark it as missing, state the assumption used, and add a validation action.

When Not To Use

Do not use without a decision question and branches that can be tested with evidence. For open-ended exploration before hypotheses are available, use a mind map or affinity diagram.

Adjacent Methods

• issue-tree: decompose the question into analysis branches before proposing explanations.
• abductive-reasoning: rank the best current explanation from incomplete evidence.

Step-by-Step Execution

Output Template

### 1. Decision Question
Question:
Scope:
Current evidence:
Decision deadline:

### 2. Competing Hypotheses
| Hypothesis | Sub-hypotheses | Evidence for | Evidence against | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|  |  |  |  |  |

### 3. Disconfirming Tests
| Hypothesis | Cheapest decisive test | Owner | Timing | Threshold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|  |  |  |  |  |

### 4. Priority
First hypothesis to test:
Why:
Decision unlocked:

### Evidence And Next Decision
- Confirmed facts:
- Assumptions:
- Missing evidence:
- Next action, owner, and timing:
- Expected signal and decision threshold:

Quality Gate

• Produce the method-specific outputs for Decision Question, Competing Hypotheses, Disconfirming Tests; do not substitute a generic framework summary.
• Tie every material score, causal claim, or stakeholder judgment to evidence or label it as an assumption.
• Include at least one disconfirming check, sensitivity, alternative explanation, or failure condition appropriate to the method.
• Convert the result into a named action or decision with an owner or stakeholder, timing, and observable signal.
• State missing inputs and the smallest validation action instead of inventing precision.
• Keep wording professional and plain enough that a smart non-specialist can use the output directly.