Change Event Timeline

Use this skill to find what changed, when it changed, and which change most likely matters.

Method Notes

• Many diagnoses fail because they treat all facts as equally current.
• A timeline helps distinguish long-standing background facts from recent trigger events.
• The goal is to identify turning points, causal candidates, and validation questions.

Required Inputs

Collect or infer these inputs before execution:

• situation or decision question
• key events and dates or approximate sequence
• before-state and after-state
• stakeholders involved in each event
• observed behavior, decision, metric, or risk change

If an input is missing, mark it as unknown, state the assumption used, and add a validation action.

When Not To Use

Do not use when timing is irrelevant or the decision is purely comparative. Use decision-matrix or weighted-scorecard instead.

Step-by-Step Execution

Output Template

### 1. Baseline Before The Change
- Before-state:
- Normal pattern:
- What would have continued without disruption:

### 2. Change Event Timeline
| Timing | Event | Stakeholders | Evidence strength | What changed after this? | Trigger / background / unknown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|  |  |  | strong / medium / weak / missing |  |  |

### 3. Likely Turning Points
1.
2.
3.

### 4. Timeline-Based Hypotheses
| Hypothesis | Supporting timeline evidence | What would weaken it | Next check |
|---|---|---|---|
|  |  |  |  |

### 5. Action Implication
- Most important change to respond to:
- What not to over-interpret:
- Next validation:

Quality Gate

• Do not invent exact dates when only sequence is known.
• Separate sequence from causation.
• Identify background conditions that matter but did not trigger the change.
• Highlight missing dates or missing reasons if they change the diagnosis.
• Keep the timeline focused on events that affect the decision.