Critical Uncertainties

Use this skill to identify which unknowns matter most and how to monitor them.

Method Notes

• A critical uncertainty is both highly uncertain and highly consequential.
• The method prevents false confidence when one forecast is not enough.
• It can feed scenario planning, validation plans, stakeholder strategy, and risk control.

Required Inputs

Collect or infer these inputs before execution:

• decision question or strategic choice
• possible uncertainties
• decision time horizon
• consequences of different outcomes
• early indicators or data sources when available

If an input is missing, mark it as missing, state the assumption used, and add a validation action.

When Not To Use

Do not use for ordinary risks with known mitigation paths. Use risk-matrix or pre-mortem instead.

Step-by-Step Execution

Output Template

### 1. Decision Frame
- Decision question:
- Time horizon:
- Why uncertainty matters:

### 2. Uncertainty Map
| Uncertainty | Impact | Uncertainty | Controllability | Why it matters | Critical? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|  | high / medium / low | high / medium / low | high / medium / low |  | yes / no |

### 3. Critical Uncertainties
| Critical uncertainty | Possible direction A | Possible direction B | Signposts to watch | Action if A | Action if B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|  |  |  |  |  |  |

### 4. Decision Implication
- Robust action regardless of uncertainty:
- Action to delay until signal improves:
- Decision gate:

Quality Gate

• Do not confuse uncertainty with general risk.
• A useful uncertainty must have more than one plausible outcome.
• Focus on variables that would change the plan.
• Include signposts, not just abstract possibilities.
• Preserve material rating rationale and provenance, signpost sources/gaps, and the basis for resolving or retaining substantive contradictions; newer information does not automatically supersede evidence from a different scope.
• Keep output concrete enough to guide monitoring and next action.