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Justinjchen-CornellJustinjchen-Cornell/Hardtech-Venture-Capital-OS/skills/unit-economics/SKILL.md

unit-economics

Skill2 starsChanged 3 months agoApache-2.0View on GitHub

单位经济分析——ARR 队列/净留存/LTV:CAC/回本周期/收入质量评分。MUST BE USED 仅当目标为 SaaS/订阅/交易型商业模式(4+6 地图中占比较小)时;纯硬件制造项目不适用,直接走 tech-dd 财务核数。

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SKILL.md

单位经济分析(Unit Economics)

借鉴:Anthropic financial-services private-equity/unit-economics。适配中国早中期硬科技(SaaS/订阅/交易/硬件混合)。 上游:tech-dd 财务核数(收入真实性)、my-pe-view(挤水分三原则)。 衔接:收入质量评分喂给 valuation-analyst(估值假设)与 tech-dd 商业 DD。 边界:本技能只管收入质量与健康度(留存/队列/获客成本);收入真实性核查归 tech-dd 财务核数(对账单+凭证+客户访谈三件套)。真实性存疑时先走真实性核查,再谈质量。

核心流程

① 识别商业模式

  • SaaS/订阅:ARR、净留存、队列
  • 交易/使用量计费:单笔收入、量趋势、take rate
  • 硬件+软件混合:硬件毛利 vs 软件毛利分开看;非经常性收入单独评估
  • 服务:合同额、续约率、upsell

② 核心指标

ARR/收入质量:

  • ARR bridge:期初 → 新增 → 扩张 → 收缩 → 流失 → 期末
  • 队列分析(vintage):每个年度队列的留存与扩张
  • 客户集中度:Top5/Top10 客户占收入比
  • 收入构成:经常性 vs 非经常性 vs 服务(PS)

客户经济性:

  • CAC:销售市场费用 ÷ 新增客户数
  • LTV:(ARPU × 毛利率) ÷ 流失率
  • LTV:CAC:健康 >3x;良好 >2x
  • CAC 回本周期:收回获客成本的月数
  • 分客户群拆解:大客户 vs 中小企业(企业级 vs SMB)

留存与扩张:

  • 毛留存(不含扩张)/ 净留存 NDR(含扩张)
  • 客户流失率 vs 收入流失率(常不同)
  • 扩张率:upsell+cross-sell ÷ 期初 ARR

队列矩阵:

队列Y0Y1Y2Y3
2024100105
2025150
绝对金额 + 指数化(Y0=100)双视图。

毛利瀑布: 收入 → 毛利 → 边际贡献 → 运营利润;按收入流拆解毛利率(订阅 vs 服务 vs 硬件)

③ 对标基准

  • SaaS Rule of 40:增速 + 利润率 > 40%
  • Magic Number:新增 ARR ÷ 上期 S&M 费用 > 0.75x
  • NDR:优秀 >120%、良好 >110%、堪忧 <100%
  • LTV:CAC:优秀 >5x、良好 >3x、堪忧 <2x
  • 毛留存:优秀 >95%、良好 >90%、堪忧 <85%
  • CAC 回本:优秀 <12 月、良好 <18 月、堪忧 >24 月

④ 收入质量评分

因子评分(1-5)备注
经常性收入占比
净留存
客户集中度
队列稳定性
增长可持续性
毛利水平
综合

⑤ 输出

  • ARR bridge + 队列矩阵 + 单位经济看板(Excel 或 md)
  • 关键指标与对标摘要
  • 红旗与深调方向

重要纪律

  • 优先要客户级原始数据——聚合指标会掩盖问题
  • NDR>100% 可能掩盖高毛流失(扩张强时)——两个都要展示
  • 队列分析是收入质量最重要的视图——坚持要这个数据
  • 区分签约 ARR 与确认收入(回款口径)
  • 使用量计费模式:关注消费趋势与扩张模式,而非传统 ARR
  • 服务收入单独评估:不经常性、毛利更低

使用提示

  • 与 vault 概念页联动:
  • 硬科技硬件公司:软件 ARR 若占比小,此 skill 降级为辅助,以毛利瀑布为主

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