unit-economics
Skill2 starsChanged 3 months agoApache-2.0View on GitHub
单位经济分析——ARR 队列/净留存/LTV:CAC/回本周期/收入质量评分。MUST BE USED 仅当目标为 SaaS/订阅/交易型商业模式(4+6 地图中占比较小)时;纯硬件制造项目不适用,直接走 tech-dd 财务核数。
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- itsryanarmani/skillstheir own version, first seen Nov 8, 2026
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- anthropics/financial-services★ 41ksame name
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- daloopa/investing★ 488same name
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- SanketSapkal/founder-skills★ 10same name
- ARCASSystems/FounderOS★ 7same name
- alifanov/ai-garage-launch★ 2same name
- codebywater/WB-OZON-AI-TEAM★ 2same name
- Ingramradical235/anty-framework★ 1same name
- itsryanarmani/skills★ 1same name
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The file
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单位经济分析(Unit Economics)
借鉴:Anthropic financial-services private-equity/unit-economics。适配中国早中期硬科技(SaaS/订阅/交易/硬件混合)。 上游:tech-dd 财务核数(收入真实性)、my-pe-view(挤水分三原则)。 衔接:收入质量评分喂给 valuation-analyst(估值假设)与 tech-dd 商业 DD。 边界:本技能只管收入质量与健康度(留存/队列/获客成本);收入真实性核查归 tech-dd 财务核数(对账单+凭证+客户访谈三件套)。真实性存疑时先走真实性核查,再谈质量。
核心流程
① 识别商业模式
- SaaS/订阅:ARR、净留存、队列
- 交易/使用量计费:单笔收入、量趋势、take rate
- 硬件+软件混合:硬件毛利 vs 软件毛利分开看;非经常性收入单独评估
- 服务:合同额、续约率、upsell
② 核心指标
ARR/收入质量:
- ARR bridge:期初 → 新增 → 扩张 → 收缩 → 流失 → 期末
- 队列分析(vintage):每个年度队列的留存与扩张
- 客户集中度:Top5/Top10 客户占收入比
- 收入构成:经常性 vs 非经常性 vs 服务(PS)
客户经济性:
- CAC:销售市场费用 ÷ 新增客户数
- LTV:(ARPU × 毛利率) ÷ 流失率
- LTV:CAC:健康 >3x;良好 >2x
- CAC 回本周期:收回获客成本的月数
- 分客户群拆解:大客户 vs 中小企业(企业级 vs SMB)
留存与扩张:
- 毛留存(不含扩张)/ 净留存 NDR(含扩张)
- 客户流失率 vs 收入流失率(常不同)
- 扩张率:upsell+cross-sell ÷ 期初 ARR
队列矩阵:
| 队列 | Y0 | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 |
| 2024 | 100 | 105 | ||
| 2025 | 150 | |||
| 绝对金额 + 指数化(Y0=100)双视图。 |
毛利瀑布: 收入 → 毛利 → 边际贡献 → 运营利润;按收入流拆解毛利率(订阅 vs 服务 vs 硬件)
③ 对标基准
- SaaS Rule of 40:增速 + 利润率 > 40%
- Magic Number:新增 ARR ÷ 上期 S&M 费用 > 0.75x
- NDR:优秀 >120%、良好 >110%、堪忧 <100%
- LTV:CAC:优秀 >5x、良好 >3x、堪忧 <2x
- 毛留存:优秀 >95%、良好 >90%、堪忧 <85%
- CAC 回本:优秀 <12 月、良好 <18 月、堪忧 >24 月
④ 收入质量评分
| 因子 | 评分(1-5) | 备注 |
| 经常性收入占比 | ||
| 净留存 | ||
| 客户集中度 | ||
| 队列稳定性 | ||
| 增长可持续性 | ||
| 毛利水平 | ||
| 综合 |
⑤ 输出
- ARR bridge + 队列矩阵 + 单位经济看板(Excel 或 md)
- 关键指标与对标摘要
- 红旗与深调方向
重要纪律
- 优先要客户级原始数据——聚合指标会掩盖问题
- NDR>100% 可能掩盖高毛流失(扩张强时)——两个都要展示
- 队列分析是收入质量最重要的视图——坚持要这个数据
- 区分签约 ARR 与确认收入(回款口径)
- 使用量计费模式:关注消费趋势与扩张模式,而非传统 ARR
- 服务收入单独评估:不经常性、毛利更低
使用提示
- 与 vault 概念页联动:
- 硬科技硬件公司:软件 ARR 若占比小,此 skill 降级为辅助,以毛利瀑布为主
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