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damodaran-valuation

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Investment Valuation（Damodaran）VC 精选——叙事与数字（3P 测试）、亏损企业估值（失败概率调整）、初创企业估值（VC 回报率/里程碑）、私有企业估值（流动性折价/关键人物）。MUST BE USED 当对早期/亏损/私有企业估值、叙事转数字、失败概率调整、流动性折价计算时。

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SKILL.md

Investment Valuation · VC 估值方法库（Ch13 + 22-24 精选）

来源：2026-08-18 精读（公司估值核心 4 章）。本 skill = valuation-analyst 的深度方法库。

核心框架

① 叙事与数字（Ch13）

估值 = 叙事 + 数字（电子表格=模型不是估值；故事=叙事不是估值）
四步：商业故事 → 3P 测试（Possible/Plausible/Probable）→ 故事→输入 → 输入→价值
P 级别 = 估值权重（Possible=低概率+大失败调整；Probable=接近确定性）
故事危险：Fairy Tale（希望取代预期）/ Runaway Story（忽略缺口）

② 亏损企业估值（Ch22）

亏损六分类：暂时/周期/商品/基建/增长型⭐/战略失误
增长型：收入→远期盈利路径（利润率何时转正）
失败概率调整：价值 = 存续概率×DCF + (1−存续概率)×残值
失败概率估计：债券收益率/评级/统计方法

③ 初创企业估值（Ch23）⭐⭐

VC 目标回报率（30-60%）= 谈判工具非折现率（压估值机制）
完整路径：收入（市场×份额）→ 利润率（当前→可持续）→ 再投资（sales-to-capital）→ 失败调整 → 期权处理（三法）
关键输入：可持续利润率 + 生存概率（>季度盈利波动）
谈判四反制：自建锚/区分风险与压价/引入竞争/里程碑期权替代高折现率

④ 私有企业估值（Ch24）

四大差异：会计/信息/风险（Total Beta）/流动性
流动性折价：35% 平均（受限股研究）；Silber 回归/期权法估算；收入越大折价越小
Key Person 效应：关键人离开=价值大降；五件套（知识转移/竞业锁定/保险/期权池/补位）

章节目录（chapters/）

章节	内容
ch01	Ch13 叙事与数字（3P 测试/四步流程）
ch02	Ch22 亏损企业（六分类/失败概率）
ch03	Ch23 初创企业（VC 回报率/完整路径/谈判）
ch04	Ch24 私有企业（Total Beta/流动性折价/Key Person）

使用提示

郑宗良估值调整链：3P(Possible) → 增长型亏损 → 初创路径（失败 60%）→ 私有调整（流动性折价+关键人）
与 vault 概念页联动：[[概念：叙事与数字]] [[概念：亏损企业估值]] [[概念：初创企业估值]] [[概念：私有企业估值]]

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