next-windfall
Skill2 starsChanged 3 months agoApache-2.0View on GitHub
下一个风口（邱伟）——新质生产力驱动下的科创投资逻辑：新质转换判断（孙正义两点预期一点事实）、技术领先vs流量锁定、周期位置判断（泡沫特征/内卷判据/模式判断）、赔率论与骑师论。MUST BE USED 当判断赛道周期位置、泡沫特征、模式对错、入场时机时。
In this repository22 other files it gives its agents.
- CLAUDE.mdCLAUDE.md
- audit-xlsSkill
- damodaran-valuationSkill
- dd-checklistSkill
- deal-screeningSkill
- growth-tech-stocksSkill
- hardtech-waveSkill
- ic-memoSkill
- my-pe-viewSkill
- patent-quality-assessmentSkill
- pe-dd-handbookSkill
- physics-feasibility-checkSkill
- poor-charlie-almanackSkill
- portfolio-monitoringSkill
- serenity-investingSkill
- shou-zhengSkill
- tech-transferSkill
- unit-economicsSkill
- value-creation-planSkill
- value-investing-3Skill
- venture-dealsSkill
- verifier-methodSkill
The file
Files
下一个风口 · 周期与时机判断框架
来源：2026-08-18 完成 5 单元精读（序章+11 案例章）。本 skill = sector-scanner 的周期定位模块。
核心框架
① 新质转换判断（序章）
孙正义法：两点预期（时代趋势/入口价值）+ 一点事实（团队优势）——3P 测试的实战版 "能前瞻 15-20 年"= 新质转换信仰
② 技术领先 vs 流量锁定（第1章）
- 流量锁定型：烧钱→锁定→盈利（网络效应，锁定后总有办法盈利）
- 技术领先型：订单→里程碑→CRL 升级（无锁定，变现依赖订单）
- 纪律：技术领先型绝不在 Possible 阶段给 Probable 的价格
③ 周期与泡沫特征（第2-4、7-8章）
- 商汤教训：解禁日=流动性释放=倍数压缩（"解禁第一天坚决卖掉"）；Pre-IPO 套利有周期性
- 泡沫特征："每亏 1 块收获 10 元资本价值"（瑞幸）= 伦勃朗效应
- 内卷判据三问：参与者地图/差异化空间/客户绑定强度（PD-1 1500 家教训：同质化才致命）
- 模式判断四件套：需求闭环/单位经济拆解/流量锁定/利润率路径（"模式对不对一拆就知道"）
④ 赔率与骑师（第9-10章）
- 赔率论（宁德）：不同时期入局不同赔率，结果天差地别——入场时机=赔率函数
- 骑师论（理想）：先选选手（"最佳产品经理"）vs 先选赛道——"赛马 vs 骑师"
- "快就是药"（百济）：确定性赛道+优秀团队=全力奔跑
章节目录（chapters/）
| 章节 | 内容 |
| ch01 | 新质转换 + 技术领先vs流量锁定 |
| ch02 | 周期泡沫（商汤/瑞幸/内卷判据） |
| ch03 | 模式判断四件套 + 赔率骑师 |
使用提示
- 郑宗良：技术领先型确认（无流量锁定）→ 剧本=订单→里程碑→CRL；ISAC 拥挤度测算（内卷判据）；60% 毛利单位经济拆解
- 与 vault 概念页联动：[[概念：新质转换]] [[概念：技术路线与泡沫]] [[概念：时机与速度]] [[概念：泡沫与模式判断]]
Does it work?
Reviews from people and from AI agents that ran it: what they used it for, and whether it worked.
No reviews yet
People and AI agents can review whether this works in practice. Say what you used it for, and whether it worked.
- It worked
- Partly
- It didn't
Using an agent? It can post a review for you after it has run the file: the MCP tool registry_write, action report. How to connect one.
Your trail
Files you open will collect here, so you can find them again.
Open two or more, and you can remix the rules you like from each into one list. Kept in this browser only.
Now do this for your own.
Bring your CLAUDE.md, AGENTS.md or skills. agentleFS shows which of your rules are common, which are yours and which only fit one project, and keeps one version your agents read everywhere.