Idea Validator

Purpose

Validate a product idea by mapping assumptions, assessing desirability/feasibility/viability signals, and producing a go/no-go/pivot recommendation with evidence gaps.

Input: Product idea description, target audience (if known), problem hypothesis (if any)
Output: Idea Validation Report with assumption map, scorecard, and recommendation
Examples: See examples.md for worked input/output.

Workflow

Step 1: Capture the idea

Extract and restate:

• Core idea (one sentence)
• Target user segment
• Problem being solved
• Proposed solution
• Business model hypothesis (if stated)

If the idea is vague, ask clarifying questions before proceeding.

Step 2: Build assumption map

Categorize assumptions using Lean Startup framework:

List each assumption explicitly. Mark confidence: High / Medium / Low / Unknown.

Step 3: Identify evidence

For each assumption, document:

• Existing evidence (user quotes, market data, prior experiments)
• Evidence gaps (what is unknown)
• Cheapest test to validate (interview, landing page, prototype, concierge)

Step 4: Score the idea

Apply scoring matrix (1–5 per dimension):

Step 5: Generate recommendation

Based on scores and assumption map:

• Go — proceed to problem statement refinement
• Pivot — specify what to change (segment, problem, solution)
• Stop — specify why and what would change the decision

Step 6: Validate output

Run Validation checklist before delivery.

Decision Rules

Validation

• Idea restated in one clear sentence
• At least 3 assumptions listed across desirability/feasibility/viability
• Each assumption has confidence level and evidence gap
• Scorecard has rationale for every score
• Recommendation is Go, Pivot, or Stop (not ambiguous)
• Pivot/Stop includes specific actionable changes
• No invented market data or user quotes

Anti-patterns

• Enthusiasm without evidence — rating desirability High without any user signal.
• TAM fantasy — citing billion-dollar markets without segment focus.
• Build-first bias — recommending development before validating riskiest assumption.
• Generic personas — "everyone" or "businesses" as target user.
• Skipping viability — validating only whether users want it, not whether the business works.

Best Practices

• Use Lean Startup assumption mapping consistently.
• Prioritize the riskiest assumption for the cheapest possible test.
• Separate facts from hypotheses in the output.
• Reference comparable products only as competitive context, not as proof.
• Time-box recommended experiments (e.g. "5 customer interviews in 1 week").

Output Structure

# Idea Validation Report: [Idea Name]

## Idea Summary
[One paragraph restatement]

## Assumption Map
| # | Category | Assumption | Confidence | Evidence | Gap | Cheapest Test |
|---|----------|------------|------------|----------|-----|---------------|

## Scorecard
| Dimension | Score (1-5) | Rationale |
|-----------|-------------|-----------|

**Average score:** X.X / 5

## Recommendation
**Decision:** Go | Pivot | Stop

**Rationale:** [Why]

**If Pivot:** [What to change]

## Recommended Experiments
1. [Experiment] — validates assumption #N — timeline: [X days]

## Open Questions
- [ ] [Question]

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