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sector-analysis

Skill9 starsChanged 8 months agoMITView on GitHub

Sector classification, key metrics by industry, industry life cycle, competitive dynamics — frameworks for sector-level equity analysis. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) provides a four-tier hierarchy: - 11 Sectors > 25 Industry Groups > 74 Industries > 163 Sub-Industries Technology / SaaS: Real Estate / REITs:

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    Select sector-appropriate metrics: Use metrics table above for the relevant sector

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SKILL.md

Sector-Specific Analysis

Sector classification, key metrics by industry, industry life cycle, competitive dynamics — frameworks for sector-level equity analysis.

When to Activate

  • Analyzing a company within its sector context
  • Identifying sector-specific KPIs and valuation metrics
  • Comparing companies across an industry peer group
  • Assessing industry structure and competitive dynamics
  • Evaluating where an industry sits in its life cycle
  • Porter's Five Forces analysis for a specific sector
  • Screening for sector investment opportunities

Core Concepts

Sector Classification (GICS)

The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) provides a four-tier hierarchy:

  • 11 Sectors > 25 Industry Groups > 74 Industries > 163 Sub-Industries
SectorKey CharacteristicsPrimary Valuation
EnergyCommodity-driven, cyclical, capital-intensiveEV/EBITDA, P/CF, NAV
MaterialsCommodity exposure, cyclicalEV/EBITDA, P/B
IndustrialsEconomic cycle sensitive, diverseP/E, EV/EBITDA
Consumer DiscretionaryConsumer spending sensitiveP/E, EV/EBITDA, EV/Sales
Consumer StaplesDefensive, stable demandP/E, Dividend Yield
Health CareRegulatory risk, pipeline valueP/E, EV/Sales (biotech), DCF
FinancialsSpread income, regulatory capitalP/E, P/B, P/TBV, Dividend Yield
Information TechnologyGrowth-oriented, scalableEV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, P/E (if profitable)
Communication ServicesMix of growth and valueEV/EBITDA, P/E, EV/Subscriber
UtilitiesRegulated returns, yield playP/E, Dividend Yield, EV/RAB
Real EstateAsset-based, income-generatingP/FFO, P/NAV, Cap Rate, Dividend Yield

Sector-Specific Key Metrics

Banking:

MetricFormulaBenchmark
NIM (Net Interest Margin)Net interest income / Avg earning assets1.0-3.0% (varies by region)
CET1 RatioCET1 capital / RWA>12% comfortable
NPL RatioNon-performing loans / Total loans<2% is healthy
Cost-to-IncomeOperating expenses / Operating income<50% excellent, <60% good
ROTENet income / Avg tangible equity>10% value-creating
LDR (Loan-to-Deposit)Gross loans / Customer deposits80-100% typical
Provision coverageLoan loss provisions / NPLs>70% adequate

Technology / SaaS:

MetricFormulaBenchmark
ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue)MRR x 12Growth rate > 30% is strong
NRR (Net Revenue Retention)(Beginning ARR + expansion - contraction - churn) / Beginning ARR>120% excellent, >100% good
DAU/MAUDaily active / Monthly active users>50% high engagement
CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost)Sales & marketing / New customersPayback < 18 months
LTV/CACCustomer lifetime value / CAC>3x healthy
Rule of 40Revenue growth % + EBITDA margin %>40% is strong
Gross marginGross profit / Revenue>70% for SaaS
Magic NumberNet new ARR / Prior quarter S&M spend>1.0 efficient

Real Estate / REITs:

MetricFormulaBenchmark
FFO (Funds From Operations)Net income + D&A - gains on salesPrimary earnings metric
AFFO (Adjusted FFO)FFO - maintenance capex - straight-line rent adj.Cash flow proxy
NAV (Net Asset Value)Market value of properties - debtIntrinsic value
Cap RateNOI / Property value4-8% varies by property type
Occupancy RateLeased sqm / Total leasable sqm>90% healthy
WALEWeighted average lease expiry>5 years = stability
LTV (Loan-to-Value)Debt / Property value<50% conservative

Insurance:

MetricFormulaBenchmark
Combined RatioLoss ratio + Expense ratio<100% = underwriting profit
Loss RatioClaims incurred / Premiums earnedVaries by line
Expense RatioOperating expenses / Premiums written<30% efficient
Investment yieldInvestment income / Avg invested assetsDepends on rate environment
Solvency II ratioOwn funds / SCR>150% comfortable
Reserve adequacyActual claims / Estimated reserves~100% adequate

Retail:

MetricFormulaBenchmark
SSSG (Same-Store Sales Growth)YoY sales growth for stores open >12 months>3% strong
Sales per sqm/sqftRevenue / Selling areaVaries by format
Inventory turnsCOGS / Avg inventoryHigher = more efficient
Gross marginGross profit / RevenueVaries widely (25-60%)
GMROIGross profit / Avg inventory>2.0x target
Conversion rateTransactions / Foot trafficHigher = better
Basket sizeRevenue / TransactionsTrack trend direction

Industry Life Cycle

                    Revenue Growth
                    ^
                    |        Growth
                    |       /     \
                    |      /  Maturity
                    |     / Shakeout \
Introduction       |    /            \____ Decline
   ___            |   /                    \
  /   \           |  /                      \
 /     \__________| /                        \
────────────────────────────────────────────────> Time
StageGrowthMarginsCompetitionInvestment Focus
IntroductionLow/negativeNegative (investment phase)Few players, high barriersProduct development, market creation
GrowthHigh (>20%)ExpandingNew entrants, increasingMarket share, capacity
ShakeoutSlowingPressureConsolidation, exitsEfficiency, scale
MaturityLow (GDP-like)Stable/optimizedOligopoly, stableCash return, maintenance
DeclineNegativeErodingExits, substitutionHarvest, restructure

Porter's Five Forces by Sector

Framework application:

  1. Threat of new entrants: Capital requirements, economies of scale, brand loyalty, regulatory barriers, network effects, switching costs
  2. Bargaining power of suppliers: Supplier concentration, input differentiation, switching costs, forward integration threat
  3. Bargaining power of buyers: Buyer concentration, price sensitivity, product differentiation, backward integration threat
  4. Threat of substitutes: Relative price/performance, switching costs, buyer propensity to substitute
  5. Rivalry among existing competitors: Number and size of competitors, industry growth, product differentiation, exit barriers, fixed costs

Sector examples:

ForceBanking (High barriers)SaaS (Network effects)Retail Grocery (Low margins)
New entrantsLow (regulation, capital)Medium (low capital, but network effects)Medium (logistics, scale)
Supplier powerLow (depositors fragmented)Low-Medium (cloud infra oligopoly)Medium (branded goods)
Buyer powerMedium (switching costs)Low-Medium (high switching costs)High (price transparency)
SubstitutesMedium (fintech, BNPL)Medium (alternative solutions)Low (essential goods)
RivalryHigh (commoditized products)High (winner-take-most)Very high (price wars)

Methodology

Sector Analysis Process

  1. Define the sector boundary: GICS classification, value chain positioning, adjacent sectors
  2. Map the industry structure: Key players, market shares, concentration (HHI), value chain
  3. Identify key drivers: Demand drivers (GDP, demographics, technology), supply dynamics (capacity, barriers)
  4. Assess competitive dynamics: Porter's Five Forces, competitive advantages by player
  5. Determine life cycle stage: Growth trajectory, margin trends, consolidation signals
  6. Select sector-appropriate metrics: Use metrics table above for the relevant sector
  7. Build peer comparison: Rank peers on key metrics, identify outliers and reasons
  8. Identify investment themes: Secular trends, disruption risks, regulatory changes
  9. Valuation framework: Apply sector-appropriate valuation multiples, cross-check with DCF

Peer Comparison

  1. Select 5-10 comparable companies (similar size, geography, business model)
  2. Standardize financials (calendar year alignment, currency, accounting policies)
  3. Calculate key metrics for all peers
  4. Rank and identify quartiles
  5. Analyze outliers: Why is company X above/below the peer median?
  6. Assess premium/discount justification

Templates

Sector Scorecard

Sector: _______________     Date: ___________

Industry Structure:
  Market size (TAM):          € ____________
  Growth rate (5Y CAGR):        ____________%
  Top-5 market share:           ____________%
  HHI (concentration):         ____________
  Life cycle stage:           [ ] Introduction  [ ] Growth  [ ] Maturity  [ ] Decline

Porter's Five Forces (1=Low, 5=High):
  New entrants:       [_]
  Supplier power:     [_]
  Buyer power:        [_]
  Substitutes:        [_]
  Rivalry:            [_]
  Overall intensity:  [_]

Key sector metrics:
  Metric 1 (________): Peer median ____  Range ____-____
  Metric 2 (________): Peer median ____  Range ____-____
  Metric 3 (________): Peer median ____  Range ____-____

Peer Comparison Table

                    Company A    Company B    Company C    Median    Target Co.
Market cap (EURm)    _______      _______      _______    _______    _______
Revenue growth        ____%        ____%        ____%      ____%      ____%
Gross margin          ____%        ____%        ____%      ____%      ____%
EBIT margin           ____%        ____%        ____%      ____%      ____%
ROCE                  ____%        ____%        ____%      ____%      ____%
Sector metric 1       _____        _____        _____      _____      _____
Sector metric 2       _____        _____        _____      _____      _____
EV/EBITDA             _____x       _____x       _____x     _____x     _____x
P/E                   _____x       _____x       _____x     _____x     _____x
Dividend yield        ____%        ____%        ____%      ____%      ____%

Quality Gate

  • Sector boundary is clearly defined (GICS or custom definition)
  • Industry structure is mapped (players, market shares, value chain)
  • Key demand and supply drivers are identified
  • Porter's Five Forces analysis is completed with sector-specific evidence
  • Life cycle stage is assessed with supporting data
  • Sector-appropriate metrics are selected (not generic ratios)
  • Peer group is relevant (comparable size, geography, business model)
  • Peer metrics are standardized for comparability
  • Investment themes are identified with catalysts and risks
  • Sector valuation approach matches industry convention

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