thinking-fast-and-slow
Skill0 starsChanged 46 days agoMITView on GitHub
当用户面对一个判断、预测或选择,怀疑自己在凭直觉拍板、被某个数字或说法牵动、或说不清推理过程时调用。覆盖《思考,快与慢》(丹尼尔·卡尼曼) 的全部方法论:系统1/系统2 的状态判定与慢思考唤起、认知放松与可信度、替代机制、WYSIATI 与光环效应、小数定律与样本量、锚定防御、可得性与风险感知、基础比率与贝叶斯修正、回归平均值、直觉性预测修正、后见之明与结果偏见、专家直觉的两条件、公式优于直觉、外部意见与规划谬误、事前验尸、损失厌恶与前景理论、禀赋效应与公平性、四重模式与罕见事件、宽框架风险政策、心理账户、框架效应、峰终定律与两个自我、机构决策与助推、附录的校准程序与不变性检验。
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- wangchuan2003-a11y/book-to-action-skillstheir own version, first seen Sep 6, 2026
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- wangchuan2003-a11y/book-to-action-skills★ 1same name
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《思考,快与慢》 — 全书能力入口
触发与不触发
适用:与本书能力域相关的咨询与任务(见下方路由表的意图列)。 不适用:
- 临床心理治疗、精神疾病诊断与用药(本包是判断与决策方法论,不替代医疗)
- 正在发生的危机、人身安全场景与需要即时行动的事件
- 用偏见知识在对方不知情时操控其选择(如启动线索、框架改写的隐蔽应用)
- 替代专业的统计建模、财务、法律与政策分析
核心原则(常驻速览,概览类问题读到这里即可回答)
- 双系统不是脑区而是作者的描述性隐喻:系统1自动、不费力、无法关闭;系统2费力、懒惰,只在遇到麻烦时出面。
- 偏见不是随机噪声,而是系统1的启发式在特定情境下的可预测反应——可预测,才可防御。
- 大脑用连贯性替代真实性:故事越连贯越可信,且从不提示缺了什么(WYSIATI、叙事谬误、光环效应)。
- 自信是感觉而不是证据;专家直觉只在「环境有规律 + 有机会长练习」两条件下可信。
- 解药不在意志力,而在外置的程序与制度:公式、外部意见、参考类别预测、事前验尸、检查表。
- 人对得失的反应相对参照点而非绝对财富:损失比同量收益更痛,且概率被非线性加权(小概率高估、大概率低估)。
- 记忆自我重写历史并替我们做选择:峰终定律与过程忽视意味着「我要什么」取决于问的是哪个自我。
能力路由(先读本表,按意图加载 1 张能力卡)
| 用户意图 | 先读 | 补读/备注 |
| 重要决策前怀疑自己在凭直觉拍板;答案来得又快又顺、说不清推理过程;想在疲惫、被打断或时间压力下复核关键判断 | references/capabilities/two-systems.md | references/capabilities/cognitive-load.md、references/capabilities/priming-effects.md、references/capabilities/cognitive-ease.md |
| 累、饿、连轴开会之后还要做重要判断;一边消耗意志力一边做决定(节食、戒烟、压情绪、赶工);想把重要评审排在合适的时点、控制同时进行的任务量 | references/capabilities/cognitive-load.md | references/capabilities/two-systems.md、references/capabilities/priming-effects.md |
| 设计环境与物料时想排查有无在无声影响行为的线索;发现自己一到某个场所或场景就做出特定选择;听到「启动/具身」类流行说法,想分清哪些可作线索使用 | references/capabilities/priming-effects.md | references/capabilities/two-systems.md、references/capabilities/cognitive-load.md |
| 判断一条反复出现的说法是否只因为熟悉而显得可信;写汇报、方案或对外材料时让真实信息更容易被相信;核查「眼熟却想不起出处」的名称与来源到底可不可信 | references/capabilities/cognitive-ease.md | references/capabilities/two-systems.md、references/capabilities/coherence-and-halo.md |
| 识别决策理由里的好恶(我喜欢它吗)而不是分析;检查问卷或访谈的问题顺序是否「制造」了相关性;判断风险与收益是否被同一条情感立场同时改变;处理涉及总量与规模的判断(捐款、赔偿、预算) | references/capabilities/question-substitution.md | references/capabilities/risk-perception.md、references/capabilities/bayes-base-rate.md |
| 面试、绩效评估与尽调中的去光环;核查「只掌握一方信息却很自信」的结论;改掉只问正面问题的评估习惯;区分「故事讲得通」与「证据充分」 | references/capabilities/coherence-and-halo.md | references/capabilities/cognitive-ease.md、references/capabilities/formula-over-intuition.md |
| 判断一条惊人的小样本结论能不能信;为实验、调研或试点决定取多少样本;解释两个单位之间的绩效差异是能力还是运气 | references/capabilities/law-of-small-numbers.md | references/capabilities/bayes-base-rate.md、references/capabilities/regression-to-mean.md |
| 谈判或报价前防御先发锚;评审计划、工期或预算时避开计划锚;解释为什么「我没被数字影响」这句话不可靠 | references/capabilities/anchoring.md | references/capabilities/outside-view.md、references/capabilities/calibration.md |
| 核对随新闻起落的担忧是否反映真实频率;处理团队中「只有我在扛」的贡献错觉;检查自我评估是否被「想起的难易」带偏 | references/capabilities/availability-heuristic.md | references/capabilities/risk-perception.md、references/capabilities/rare-events.md |
| 担忧随新闻起落时核查风险的真实大小与行动依据;写风险沟通材料(公告/科普/答记者问)时设计分子分母与情绪安抚;识别组织或社会是否正被卷入效用层叠并预置冷静机制 | references/capabilities/risk-perception.md | references/capabilities/question-substitution.md、references/capabilities/availability-heuristic.md、references/capabilities/rare-events.md |
| 凭「像不像」判断归属或概率时补上基础比率;把统计基率与目击证词/个案信息合成(而不是二选一);检查自己给出的多步概率是否自洽(30%×80%=24%) | references/capabilities/bayes-base-rate.md | references/capabilities/question-substitution.md、references/capabilities/law-of-small-numbers.md、references/capabilities/conjunction-fallacy.md、references/capabilities/causal-base-rate.md |
| 核对更详细的情节是否被判为更可能(概率嵌套);单独看一个方案时检查是否被「平均质量」误导;把比例式问题改写成频数式/并排对比以减少合取谬误 | references/capabilities/conjunction-fallacy.md | references/capabilities/bayes-base-rate.md、references/capabilities/framing-effects.md |
| 把统计结论讲给团队/客户但对方不行动;写汇报或科普时想让基率真正被使用;在「使用基率」与「贴标签」之间寻找负责任的说法 | references/capabilities/causal-base-rate.md | references/capabilities/bayes-base-rate.md、references/capabilities/outside-view.md |
| 解释绩效或成绩的忽好忽坏(被批评后进步、被表扬后变差、最差门店下一年变好);为一批对象做下一期预测(门店、选手、候选人、基金);评估培训、治疗或管理动作是否真的有效 | references/capabilities/regression-to-mean.md | references/capabilities/law-of-small-numbers.md、references/capabilities/intuitive-prediction.md |
| 预测一个具体对象的未来数值(平均绩点、业绩、投资回报、通过率);复核一个与证据一样极端的直觉预测(「他这么优秀,结果一定好」);给一批对象做完评级或预测后,检查整体是否偏极端、有没有回归 | references/capabilities/intuitive-prediction.md | references/capabilities/regression-to-mean.md、references/capabilities/calibration.md |
| 复盘一个已经出结果的决策,判断决策本身的质量;事故、误诊或失败项目之后的调查与责任归属;评估一个常做预测的人(专家、分析师、管理者)的预测能力 | references/capabilities/hindsight-bias.md | references/capabilities/expert-intuition.md、references/capabilities/two-selves.md |
| 判断某位专家/顾问/自己的直觉在这个领域值不值得信;给一份很自信的长期预测(市场、政治、趋势)定可信度折扣;为重要判断建立「预测→结果」的回访记录机制;区分专业人员的子任务:哪部分是行家、哪部分只是新手 | references/capabilities/expert-intuition.md | references/capabilities/hindsight-bias.md、references/capabilities/formula-over-intuition.md |
| 把招聘/录取/评审的最终决定从面试印象改为结构化评分;给反复不一致的判断装一个可复算的规则(不想先做统计研究);设计一份 6 项左右的评分表与 1~5 分标准;预判并处理组织对评分表/算法的抵触 | references/capabilities/formula-over-intuition.md | references/capabilities/coherence-and-halo.md、references/capabilities/expert-intuition.md、references/capabilities/outside-view.md |
| 检验一份工期/预算/收益预估是否过于乐观(含个人项目);审批一份只有一个理想情景、没有基准对照的计划;为项目取同类案例的失败率、超支百分比、耗时分布;为团队收集预测(私下独立写 vs 公开讨论)并设计审批与预备金规则 | references/capabilities/outside-view.md | references/capabilities/anchoring.md、references/capabilities/causal-base-rate.md、references/capabilities/formula-over-intuition.md、references/capabilities/premortem.md、references/capabilities/broad-framing.md |
| 重要决策拍板前给乐观计划泼一次冷水;把会上被压制的疑虑变成合法发言;给创业/立项/并购计划补失败情景与竞争一栏 | references/capabilities/premortem.md | references/capabilities/outside-view.md、references/capabilities/institutional-decisions.md |
| 评估一笔得失决策里对方(或自己)的风险态度;谈判、报价、激励设计:选收益框架还是损失框架;解释明显正期望的机会为什么被拒绝 | references/capabilities/loss-aversion.md | references/capabilities/endowment-effect.md、references/capabilities/fairness-norms.md、references/capabilities/fourfold-pattern.md、references/capabilities/broad-framing.md |
| 为二手处置或资产出售定价、判断该不该卖;判断谈判中对方为何不让步(是否按「失去」定价);理解随机到手的东西为什么换不动 | references/capabilities/endowment-effect.md | references/capabilities/loss-aversion.md、references/capabilities/mental-accounting.md |
| 判断一次涨价、调薪或涨租会不会被判定为不公平;为会让部分人受损的改革设计不追溯条款与沟通方式;解开重谈合同中「我让了这么多对方还不满足」的僵局 | references/capabilities/fairness-norms.md | references/capabilities/loss-aversion.md、references/capabilities/broad-framing.md |
| 解释自己在投资、保险、赌注中此刻为什么保守或冒进;预测谈判、诉讼、项目对抗中对方的风险态度;评估保险、担保、和解报价是否定价过高 | references/capabilities/fourfold-pattern.md | references/capabilities/loss-aversion.md、references/capabilities/rare-events.md、references/capabilities/invariance-test.md |
| 核对随新闻起落的恐惧是否反映真实概率;判断保险、保障、加固这类「小概率大损失」支出是否按担忧而非概率定价;为风险沟通选择或还原频率格式与概率格式的表述 | references/capabilities/rare-events.md | references/capabilities/availability-heuristic.md、references/capabilities/risk-perception.md、references/capabilities/fourfold-pattern.md |
| 手上有多笔同类小风险决策,不知道该逐个决定还是打包一起看;天天查看投资/账户结果,被短期波动反复牵动情绪,想定一条处理频率;为反复遇到的同类风险(免赔额、延长保修、同类试投)预先定下固定规则;组织里各部门都规避风险、整体错过正期望机会,需要层面的宽框架与政策 | references/capabilities/broad-framing.md | references/capabilities/outside-view.md、references/capabilities/loss-aversion.md、references/capabilities/fairness-norms.md、references/capabilities/mental-accounting.md、references/capabilities/institutional-decisions.md |
| 面对亏损持仓或已投入很多却回报走低的事,判断要不要止损、要不要继续追加;解释同一笔钱因来源或用途不同而被区别对待(专款、赌场赢来的钱、信用卡);做决定前反复纠结「将来会不会后悔」,或因为怕后悔而回避行动;想用预算与专用资金管住消费,又不确定这算不算不理性 | references/capabilities/mental-accounting.md | references/capabilities/endowment-effect.md、references/capabilities/broad-framing.md、references/capabilities/framing-effects.md |
| 材料只有一种表述(成功率、节约率、折扣),想确认换个说法自己还会不会这么选;要对同类事项逐个打分、定赔偿或定额度,担心逐件评估前后不一致;在比价、面试评分、绩效评价中需要把多个对象放到一起比较;怀疑对方(销售、供应商)安排好了对比环境在引导自己的偏好;设计报价、政策说明或健康告知的表述,又不想失真 | references/capabilities/framing-effects.md | references/capabilities/conjunction-fallacy.md、references/capabilities/mental-accounting.md、references/capabilities/invariance-test.md |
| 设计有痛苦或不适的体验流程(医疗操作、检查、投诉处理),想优化用户记住的感受;好流程因结尾糟糕被整体评价为失败(复盘、口碑、续约);用满意度评分或最后一天印象决定是否重游、复购、续约;判断自己或他人的偏好是否可靠——「亲身经历过还能有错吗」;为「值得记忆」安排行程或活动,却牺牲了当下的体验 | references/capabilities/peak-end-rule.md | references/capabilities/two-selves.md |
| 评估自己或他人「过得好不好/幸不幸福」;设计或解读幸福调查、民调与政策指标;决定时间与金钱该投向哪类活动(一次性消费 vs 持续投入) | references/capabilities/two-selves.md | references/capabilities/hindsight-bias.md、references/capabilities/peak-end-rule.md |
| 为团队或组织的决策流程加装质量保障;设计会议规程(讨论前先独立写意见)与批评文化;设计或审查默认选项类助推方案 | references/capabilities/institutional-decisions.md | references/capabilities/premortem.md、references/capabilities/broad-framing.md |
| 检验自己或他人的「九成把握」类置信区间是否校准;为重要判断建立可验收、可复盘的区间估计习惯;审查概率判断的可比性(引出程序是否说明) | references/capabilities/calibration.md | references/capabilities/anchoring.md、references/capabilities/intuitive-prediction.md |
| 检验自己的偏好是否稳定(重大消费、投资、政策选择);解释「换个说法答案就变」的现象并按程序处理;为重要选择设计多框架压力测试 | references/capabilities/invariance-test.md | references/capabilities/fourfold-pattern.md、references/capabilities/framing-effects.md |
非能力类查询:
- 书名/作者/章节/整书概览 → references/overview.md
- 术语解释 → references/glossary.md
- 决策规则速查(不需要原文依据时) → references/cheatsheet.md
- 完整意图与关键词索引(本表未覆盖的意图先查这里) → references/capability-index.md
加载规则
- 每次任务先读本文件,再按路由表加载 1 张能力卡;任务明确跨域时最多加载 2 张。
- 概览/书名类问题不加载能力卡,用「核心原则」与 overview.md 回答。
- 路由表与 capability-index.md 都无法命中的意图,明确告知超出本书范围,不要硬套。
边界与判停
- 用户把「系统1/系统2」当作脑区、可测量的实体或医学诊断使用时,停止并澄清这是描述性隐喻。
- 用户要求用启动效应、框架效应等方法在对方不知情时改变其选择时,停止,只提供识别与自检。
- 用户把自我损耗、启动效应或具身效应当作已被验证的强效应并据此做重大决策时,停止并注明外部重复性争议(NR-01)。
- 用户要求逐字引用原文用于印刷或教学材料时,提示须先取得更好底本(OCR 稿核验边界,NR-02)。
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