Future-operation and modification-register study

A synthesis workflow, not a new solver. It sits on top of a solved year x case sweep (see neqsim-process-modeling reference multi-platform-complex for building and sweeping the model). The deliverable is a defensible, reviewable list of what changes when, with the evidence quality stated for each item. Screening level: no item is a design value.

Inputs

• A solved, resumable year x case table (base/low/high) with a status column (solved, solved, X RELAXED, unsolved: reason), the utilisation register per year and the rate basis (stream-day or calendar-day).
• The earlier studies and their stated numbers (stable-oil, export-gas, power, ejector, compression, and similar), each with version, date and basis.
• The design basis and any consultant or vendor study to compare with.

Workflow

1. Reconcile the studies first. One row per number that appears in more than one study: value, source, basis (stream/calendar day, mode definition, EOS, year definition), difference, resolution (which is used and why). Write the key resolutions in words. Refresh earlier-study tables when the sweep changed; record the percentage by which each statement moves (synthesis_impact).
2. Per-year operating strategy table. For every year: feed and export rates, pressures, active trains and modes (for example decoupled shafts, ejector on or off, minimum-flow status), binding constraint, status. Infeasible or partial years get a paragraph stating why and what is unmet; never smooth a failed year.
3. Modification register. One row per candidate: id, equipment, trigger year (first year utilisation exceeds the limit, from the register, not interpolated), problem and utilisation, options, recommended option, rough effect, CAPEX class if known, evidence quality (measured, vendor datasheet, calibrated model, screening model, assumption), dependencies, owner of the open data. Items that depend on an unmodelled effect are listed as such. Keep it as CSV plus a short table in the report.
4. Robustness. Sensitivity (one-at-a-time low/base/high) on feed scale, rates, setpoints and fluid-basis proxy; tornado ranking; then the pre-solved sweep to Monte Carlo pattern (surrogate on the solved runs, P10/P50/P90) for the headline numbers. State which items flip trigger year across the band.
5. Benchmark against the consultant or vendor study. Digitise the charts, align mode definitions and rate basis, then list: agreements, differences by cause (basis, data, physics), bottlenecks they report that the model does not cover with your own utilisation check, and conclusions that change. Add a dated update section instead of silently rewriting the earlier text.
6. Deviation register against the design basis. Requirement, clause, status (compliant, deviates, not modelled), model hook, impact ranking, justification. Run a strict configuration that reproduces the design basis before the best-estimate case; record contradictions inside the basis and the choice made.
7. Open questions and data needs, ranked by their effect on the headline answers, with an owner.

Quality rules

• Distinguish what the model computed from what was assumed or taken from a document.
• Never present a year with an unsolved or relaxed status as a result; carry the status into every table that uses it.
• Do not mix stream-day and calendar-day volumes between tables.
• A modification is justified by the utilisation register and the trigger year, not by the existence of a spare option.
• Carry the calibrated vs independent flag into any statement that cites model accuracy.
• Keep generic facts in reusable tooling; keep company or asset data in the task folder.

Related

• neqsim-process-modeling (reference multi-platform-complex) for the model, sweep and validation design.
• neqsim-capacity-increase-screening for ranking capacity ideas on an existing host.
• neqsim-rotating-equipment-design and neqsim-compressor-antisurge-recycle for compressor, shaft and driver limits that usually dominate the register.
• neqsim-optimization-and-doe for tornado and Monte Carlo tooling.
• neqsim-professional-reporting for the Word/PDF deliverable and neqsim-task-workflow for the task folder and status file conventions.