Hypothesis Design Skill

XYZ Hypothesis

[X%] of [Y segment] will [Z behavior] within [T period], because [R rationale]

상세 schema 는 skills/problem-definition/assets/05-xyz-hypothesis.md 참조 (cross-reference).

If-Then-Because

If [intervention] is delivered to [segment]
Then [measurable result] within [period]
Because [causal mechanism]

XYZ 보다 가벼운 형식. early-stage exploration 시 사용.

V/U/V/F Assumption Classifier

각 가설의 핵심 가정을 4 카테고리로 분류 후 위험도 평가:

가장 risky assumption 부터 experiment 우선순위 결정.

≥ 2 approaches 룰

hypotheses:
  - id: h1
    xyz: "..."
    pros: [...]
    cons: [...]
    v_u_v_f_risk: { v: high, u: low, v2: low, f: low }
  - id: h2
    xyz: "..."
    pros: [...]
    cons: [...]
    v_u_v_f_risk: { v: low, u: high, v2: low, f: medium }
recommended: h1
recommendation_rationale: "h1 의 V 위험이 더 testable. h1 fail 시 h2 로 pivot."

HARD GATE: hypothesis → experiment-design 진입 조건

• ≥2 hypotheses 비교
• 각 hypothesis 의 V/U/V/F risk 평가
• recommended + falsification 명시
• confidence ≥ 60

Reference

• RO-PNA XYZ format
• David Bland "Testing Business Ideas" — V/U/V/F (V=Value, U=Usability, V=Viability, F=Feasibility)
• gstack approaches ≥2 rule