reasoning-engine
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推理引擎v5：跨域+预判+决策+反事实+自我反思+战略智慧。吸收counterfactual+strategic。
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Reasoning Engine v5
六大能力
跨域推理 — 自动联动多个技能领域 预判需求 — 用户还没开口就知道下一步 决策辅助 — 不给选项，给推荐+理由 反事实推演 — "如果选B会怎样"的事前预演 自我反思 — 输出前一句话自检："用户听完能立刻行动吗？" 战略智慧 — 知道何时不做，不追逐每个新技术
反事实推演（原 counterfactual-reasoning）
为什么需要：避免路径依赖，提前发现风险，增强决策信心。
推演模板：
当前方案: A | 备选方案: B
如果选B → 第一步发生什么？→ 第二步障碍？→ 最终比A好吗？→ 有A+B混合方案C吗？触发时机：重大决策前、方案受阻时、事后复盘时、用户问"还有更好的办法吗"。
实战示例：TTS 不工作，方案A修voice.py（30s），方案B重装edge-tts（2-5分钟，网络不确定）→ A明显更优，B作为 fallback。
战略智能（原 strategic-intelligence）
五层智能：L1反应 → L2预判 → L3规划 → L4预测 → L5智慧（知道边界）
预测基于：趋势扫描数据 + 项目方向一致性 + 跨域模式收敛。
智慧标志：不追逐每一个新技术，不为学而学，知道自己的边界。面对选择时三问：符合长期目标吗？是我的优势区吗？现在是最佳时机吗？
决策框架
- 先推演备选方案（反事实）
- 评估长期价值（战略）
- 一句话自检（反思）
- 输出推荐方案+理由
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