Lean Experimentation: Lean Validation and the RAT Protocol

Experimentation is not about proving you are right, but about reducing the risk of failure through lowest-cost learning.

Core Process: RAT (Riskiest Assumption Test)

Do not rush to build a full MVP. First identify: "If which one assumption is proven wrong, the entire product/feature becomes meaningless?" Design an experiment specifically for that assumption.

Checklist

1. List All Preconditions (Identify Assumptions) — Covering Desirability, Feasibility, and Viability.
2. Filter Riskiest Assumptions (Select RAT) — Choose those with the highest uncertainty and the greatest impact on success or failure.
3. Match MVP Type — Refer to the "MVP Selection Matrix" below.
4. Define Falsifiable Metrics — A clear success/failure value must be set in advance (e.g., Click-through Rate > 15%).
5. Execute and Log Results — Experiment details are recorded in docs/pmpowers/experiments/.
6. Decision (Pivot or Persevere) — Decide whether to stay the course, pivot entirely, or stop the project based on evidence.

MVP Selection Matrix

Validation Loop Logic

digraph lean_cycle {
    "Identify Assumptions" [shape=box];
    "Design RAT" [shape=box];
    "Run Lean Experiment" [shape=box];
    "Learn from Data" [shape=box];
    "Assumption Holds?" [shape=diamond];
    "Persevere" [shape=doublecircle];
    "Pivot" [shape=doublecircle];

    "Identify Assumptions" -> "Design RAT";
    "Design RAT" -> "Run Lean Experiment";
    "Run Lean Experiment" -> "Learn from Data";
    "Learn from Data" -> "Assumption Holds?";
    "Assumption Holds?" -> "Persevere" [label="Yes"];
    "Assumption Holds?" -> "Pivot" [label="No"];
}

Delivery Standards

Experiment reports must include: Hypothesis, MVP Description, Success Metrics, Actual Data, and Conclusion.