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counterfactual-reasoning

Skill2 starsChanged 6 months agoApache-2.0View on GitHub

Tactic for reasoning about what would happen if variables were different — supports causal identification and intervention analysis.

3 other projects use a version of this.

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    Multiple paths: If Y can be caused by X through multiple paths, removing X may not remove Y.

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Files
SKILL.md

Counterfactual Reasoning

Reason about what would happen if a variable were different. "If X had not occurred, would Y still have happened?" This is the gold standard for causal identification.

Available SOPs

  • causal-chain-query — trace causal paths to identify dependencies
  • contradiction-flagging — flag when counterfactual contradicts observed evidence
  • confidence-scoring — assess confidence in counterfactual conclusions

Guiding Principles

  • Minimal change. Counterfactuals should change only the target variable, holding all else constant.
  • Mechanism required. A counterfactual without a mechanism is speculation, not reasoning.
  • Multiple paths. If Y can be caused by X through multiple paths, removing X may not remove Y.
  • Temporal ordering. Causes precede effects. Counterfactuals that violate temporal order are invalid.

Minimum Yield

<HARD-GATE> ≥1 counterfactual assessment with explicit mechanism and confidence score per invocation. </HARD-GATE>

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