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yogsoth-aiyogsoth-ai/knowledge-structuring/skills/evidence-weighing/SKILL.md

evidence-weighing

Skill2 starsChanged 6 months agoApache-2.0View on GitHub

Tactic for assessing the strength and relevance of evidence for causal claims — distinguishes correlation from causation.

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SKILL.md

Evidence Weighing

Assess the strength of evidence for causal claims. Not all evidence is equal — RCTs > observational studies > expert opinion > anecdote.

Available SOPs

  • evidence-linking — connect evidence to claims
  • confidence-scoring — assign calibrated confidence
  • contradiction-flagging — identify conflicting evidence

Guiding Principles

  • Hierarchy of evidence. Interventional > observational > theoretical > anecdotal.
  • Effect size matters. A statistically significant but tiny effect is weak evidence for practical causation.
  • Replication is king. Single studies are suggestive; replicated findings are convincing.
  • Confounders weaken. Evidence from studies with uncontrolled confounders gets lower weight.
  • Mechanism strengthens. Evidence backed by a plausible mechanism gets higher weight.

Minimum Yield

<HARD-GATE> ≥2 evidence assessments with explicit strength ratings per invocation. </HARD-GATE>

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