Assumption Excavation

A three-phase tactic that surfaces hidden assumptions, challenges each one adversarially, and maps which assumptions are load-bearing for the conclusion. Decisions often rest on unstated beliefs — this tactic makes them explicit and tests their strength.

Stages

1. Assumption Extraction — Systematically surface all assumptions underlying the decision, with confidence levels
2. Assumption Challenge — For each assumption, construct the strongest counter-argument and identify alternatives
3. Conclusion Sensitivity — Map which assumptions, if wrong, would change the conclusion

Available SOPs

Execution Guidance

• Extract minimum 5 assumptions per decision
• Challenge ALL assumptions, not just obvious ones
• Confidence levels: HIGH (>80%), MEDIUM (50-80%), LOW (<50%)
• Critical assumption = conclusion changes if assumption is wrong
• Focus mitigation efforts on critical + low-confidence assumptions

Minimum Yield

• = 5 assumptions extracted with confidence levels

• Challenge argument for each assumption
• Alternative assumption for each (what if the opposite is true?)
• Sensitivity map showing which assumptions are critical
• List of critical assumptions requiring mitigation