latour-ai·latour-ai/skills/market-sizing-builder/SKILL.md

market-sizing-builder

Skill69 starsChanged 25 days agoNo licenceView on GitHub

Build a triangulated market size for a new channel, product category, or end market — a top-down estimate from industry association, trade, and government data, and an independent bottom-up estimate built from units: for consumer channels, doors times velocity times price; for services, establishments times spend per establishment or per customer. The two are reconciled line by line, every assumption is sourced and dated or marked as an assumption, the inputs the answer moves most with are run through a sensitivity table, and the result is split explicitly into total, serviceable, and obtainable market with a range rather than a point. For private equity deal and portfolio teams sizing a portfolio company's expansion into a new channel or category, for screening the "is this a large, fragmented end market?" question before a thesis is written, and for growth-equity and long-only analysts who need a defensible number behind a TAM claim. Trigger on phrases like "how big is this market," "size the TAM," "build a bottom-up market size," "what's the SAM for this channel," "is this a large fragmented market," "how many doors and what velocity," "how much do these establishments spend on this," "sanity-check management's TAM," or "reconcile the top-down and bottom-up." Do NOT use to list the players, segments, and whitespace in a sector — use the market-map-builder skill. Do NOT use for a first-pass read of a CIM against the fund's criteria — use the cim-first-pass skill. Do NOT use for cohort, retention, and CAC/LTV analysis of a company's own customers, which works from company data rather than the market. Do NOT use for bull/base/bear valuation scenarios on a model; the sensitivity table here covers market inputs only. A market size is always a range with its construction shown, never a single headline number.