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ForgeyClapForgeyClap/Forge-Core/.claude/skills/forge-prediction/SKILL.md

forge-prediction

Skill2 starsChanged 6 days agoMITView on GitHub

Playbook for predictions and sports data: odds, backtests, no betting (gebruik bij voorspellingen).

1 other project uses a version of this, 1 of them edited.

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The file

We split this skill into the rules it gives an agent

3 rules. About 0 are common, 3 are distinctive, and 0 are very specific to this project.

  • ≈0

    Common · estimate

    Many files like this have a rule of this kind.

  • ≈3

    Distinctive · estimate

    This author's own choices. Worth a look.

  • 0

    Very specific

    Tied to their project's names, files or tools. Probably skip.

  • Common
  • Distinctive
  • Very specific
  1. Distinctive:

    Use for: prediction and sports-data systems, including Telegram delivery.

    line 10
  2. Distinctive:

    Never claim certainty: Every output carries a confidence/risk label.

    line 13
  3. Distinctive:

    Verify data-source quality.

    line 16

≈ “Common” is an estimate: at least 1 in 5 of the 350,495 skill files we read have a rule of the same kind, not the same words. “Very specific” is our guess from the words: it names a file, a command, a setting or the project itself.

Keep what fits and drop the rest. Your version, ready for your agents.
Files
SKILL.md

Forge playbook — Prediction / sports-data

When to use

  • Use for: prediction and sports-data systems, including Telegram delivery.

Hard rules

  • Never claim certainty. Every output carries a confidence/risk label.
  • No automatic real-money betting / no auto-stake code path.
  • Backtest before trusting any model; show sample size.
  • Verify data-source quality; track all assumptions.
  • Telegram token in env only; one message format, tested.

Team (conditional)

Lead: mle-reviewer + planner. Specialists: mle-reviewer, python-reviewer, silent-failure-hunter (data gaps look like clean zeros), database-reviewer (data store).

Skills / commands / MCP

systematic-debugging, /test-coverage. For delivery, defer to forge-n8n or a Telegram layer (Telegram bots fold in here).

Fan-out & flow

L3. Parallel: data ingestion ∥ model/stat logic ∥ delivery formatting. Serial: ingest → backtest → value/odds calc → uncertainty labeling → delivery.

Domain gates

Data sources + quality verified; statistical logic reviewed; backtesting done; odds/value checked; confidence/risk labels on every output; assumptions documented; data freshness check.

Ship-readiness (unique)

Backtest results shown with sample size; every output labeled with confidence/risk; assumptions + data-quality notes attached; no auto-bet path; Telegram message format tested. The ship-readiness prediction + Telegram checklists are advisory; optionally run codex-reviewer (Codex) on important code — not a blocker.

Safety, approval and honesty

  • Approval / safety: no automatic real-money betting / no auto-stake code path.
  • Approval / safety: Telegram token in env only.
  • Honest failure: never claim certainty: every output carries a confidence/risk label; backtests show sample size.
  • Shared gates for every playbook (honesty, owner approval, secrets, reviews): .claude/docs/forge-reference/playbook-template.md.

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