Decision making

Hesitating costs time and energy, and deciding on gut feeling hides the reasons. This skill structures a choice so that it can be explained, checked and revisited if the facts change.

When to use

• When a project is blocked by a choice between options.
• For decisions that cost money or are hard to reverse.
• Not for small, easily reversible choices: decide quickly and move on.

Inputs

1. The decision to make, and its deadline.
2. The options already on the table.
3. What matters to the person or the team, and the facts available.

Method

1. Frame the problem before comparing options: what exactly is being decided, by whom, by when, and what would make the decision good (Hammond, Keeney and Raiffa's PrOACT elements: problem, objectives, alternatives, consequences, tradeoffs).
2. Classify the decision: easy to reverse (decide fast) or hard to reverse (take the time, gather facts).
3. Widen the options: at least three real alternatives, including "do nothing" and a combination of two options.
4. Set the criteria and their weights before scoring the options, so that scoring does not bend the criteria.
5. Score each option in a decision matrix, with the facts behind each score. Facts that change (prices, rules, availability) come from current sources with a date.
6. Check the biases listed by Kahneman, Lovallo and Sibony: falling in love with one option, only looking for confirming evidence, anchoring on the first number, sunk costs, overconfidence. Ask: what would have to be true for the second-best option to win?
7. Decide and record: the decision, the reasons, what would make us revisit it, who was consulted, and the date.

Output

### Decision: <question> (decide by <date>, decision owner: <name>)
| Criterion | Weight | Option A | Option B | Option C |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| … | …% | score (fact) | … | … |
| Weighted total | | | | |

Decision: … | Why: … | We revisit if: … | Consulted: … | Date: …

Quality bar

• At least three real options, criteria weighted before scoring.
• Every score rests on a fact or a labeled assumption.
• Biases are checked explicitly, and the decision record says when to revisit it.
• The tool supports the decision; the person still decides.
• Written in the user's language, with the terms below.

Terminology

Sources

• Hammond, J. S., Keeney, R. L., & Raiffa, H. (1999). Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions. Harvard Business School Press.
• Kahneman, D., Lovallo, D., & Sibony, O. (2011). Before you make that big decision. Harvard Business Review, 89(6), 50–60.