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mxslrmxslr/mlcraft/skills/domain-tabular/SKILL.md

domain-tabular

Skill8 starsChanged 4 months agoMITView on GitHub

Use for structured/tabular data prediction: churn, fraud, credit/risk scoring, price/demand regression, conversion, recommendation features, any CSV/database ML. Picks gradient boosting vs deep tabular, robust feature engineering, correct CV, calibration, and imbalance handling. Triggers on 'predict churn/fraud/price/risk', 'classify this CSV/table', 'tabular', 'XGBoost/LightGBM', 'feature engineering'.

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SKILL.md

Tabular ML - Method Selection

For most tabular problems, gradient-boosted trees beat deep learning - start there.

Decision table

SituationRecommendedNotes
Default (any size, mixed types)LightGBM / XGBoost / CatBoostCatBoost handles categoricals natively; LightGBM is fast; XGBoost robust. Tune with Optuna.
Strong baseline / linear signalRegularized Linear/Logistic, ElasticNetFast sanity baseline; interpretable.
Very large + rich, or embeddings neededDeep tabular (FT-Transformer / TabNet)Only when GBTs plateau and data is large.
Tiny dataLinear / simple trees + heavy regularizationAvoid overfitting; strong CV.
EnsemblingBlend/stack GBTs + linearUsually the last real gain.

Feature engineering & correctness

  • Target leakage is the #1 killer: drop features known only after the outcome or that encode the label. Audit each feature's availability at prediction time.
  • Fit encoders/scalers/imputers/target-encoding inside CV folds (on train only) - fitting on the full set leaks (data-rigor-and-leakage).
  • Handle categoricals (native/CatBoost, or target/one-hot with fold-safe encoding), missing values, and skew deliberately.
  • Time-aware data needs a time-based split (train earlier than test), never random.

Evaluation & imbalance

  • CV: StratifiedKFold (classification), GroupKFold if entities repeat, TimeSeriesSplit if temporal.
  • Imbalanced (fraud/churn): PR-AUC, recall at a fixed precision, class weights or focal/scale_pos_weight - not raw accuracy.
  • Calibrate probabilities (Platt/isotonic) if scores drive decisions/thresholds.
  • Explainability: SHAP for global + per-prediction attribution (great for stakeholder trust).
  • Improve: use accuracy-improvement-loop (feature engineering usually beats model swaps; then tuning, then stacking).

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