thinking-craft
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批判性思维与决策分析的综合框架。当需要深度思考、分析判断、决策复盘、第一性原理、逆向思维、系统思维、二阶思维效应、认知偏差识别、风险评估、黑天鹅/反脆弱、贝叶斯推理、Pre-mortem 分析、元认知、思维模型应用时使用。
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- mike22890/opencode-skills-cnword for word, first seen Sep 13, 2026
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The file
Files
Thinking Craft（思考 / 决策）
何时触发
关键词命中即触发：思考、分析、判断、决策、复盘、元认知、批判性思维、第一性原理、反向思考、系统思维、二阶思维、认知偏差、决策框架、黑天鹅、贝叶斯、Pre-mortem、风险、长期、策略、逻辑。
速记 6 条
- 第一性原理：拆到不能再拆的基本事实
- 二阶思维：不仅想"然后"，想"然后的然后"
- 反向思考：先想"怎么失败"，再想"怎么成功"
- 认知偏差：永远假设自己有偏见
- 决策矩阵：列选项 + 加权 + 量化
- 复盘循环：事后分析比事前规划更重要
自检清单
- 是否找到第一性原理？
- 是否想到二阶效应？
- 是否考虑反向 / 失败场景？
- 是否识别了认知偏差？
- 是否用框架量化决策？
- 是否预留复盘环节？
加载 reference
| 用户说 | 加载 |
| 第一性原理 / 系统思维 / 二阶思维 / 反向思考 / 拆解/ 本质/ 底层逻辑/ 追根溯源 | reference/principles.md |
| 认知偏差 / 启发式 / 决策陷阱 / 思维误区/ 偏见/ 非理性/ 判断错误 | reference/biases.md |
| 决策框架 / 加权矩阵 / Pre-mortem / 贝叶斯 / 决策方法/ 量化/ 评估/ 选择困难 | reference/frameworks.md |
| 学谁 / 大师 / 锚点 / 思维大师/ 查理芒格/ 芒格多元思维 | reference/masters.md |
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