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itzcullitzcull/thinking-skills/skills/second-order-thinking/SKILL.md

second-order-thinking

Skill3 starsChanged 6 months agoMITView on GitHub

Use second-order thinking to examine consequences beyond immediate effects. Use when evaluating decisions across time horizons, asking what happens next, or avoiding short-sighted optimization.

3 other projects use a version of this.

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2 rules. About 0 are common, 2 are distinctive, and 0 are very specific to this project.

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  • Common
  • Distinctive
  • Very specific
  1. Distinctive:

    Purpose: Consider long-term consequences of decisions beyond immediate effects

    line 14
  2. Distinctive:

    Ask about consequences at:

    line 30

≈ “Common” is an estimate: at least 1 in 5 of the 350,495 skill files we read have a rule of the same kind, not the same words. “Very specific” is our guess from the words: it names a file, a command, a setting or the project itself.

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SKILL.md

Second-order Thinking

Overview

Category: Decision Making

Purpose: Consider long-term consequences of decisions beyond immediate effects

Key Insights

  • Most people stop at first-order thinking
  • Examine decisions across different time horizons
  • Applicable to both major and minor decisions

How to Use

Approach 1: Mental Exercise

  1. Identify an initial decision
  2. Examine immediate (first-order) effects
  3. For each effect, ask: "And then what?"
  4. Continue exploring subsequent consequences

Approach 2: Timeline Analysis

Ask about consequences at:

  • 10 minutes
  • 10 months
  • 10 years

Practical Example: Buying a House Outside the City

First-Order Effects

  • Garden
  • More family space
  • Living far from work

Second-Order Consequences

  • Garden -> Growing produce -> Fresh herbs/vegetables
  • More space -> More cleaning -> Potential home stress
  • Far from work -> Need car -> Two hours daily commuting

Resources

Additional Tool

A worksheet is available to help practice second-order thinking, bundled with 9 other tools.


Source: https://untools.co/second-order-thinking/

Download now (ZIP)

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