Risk Assessment

Overview

Synthesize all prior research (market, competitors, financials) into a SWOT analysis and detailed risk assessment with mitigation strategies.

If any file is missing, stop and inform the user which skill needs to run first. </HARD-GATE>

Inputs

• run_id: From idea-intake (format: YYYY-MM-DD-<slug>-<hhmm>)
• All four files listed above

Output

• File: docs/reports/<run_id>/04-risk-assessment.md

Process

digraph risk_assessment {
    "Verify run_id and all inputs exist" [shape=box];
    "Read all prior sections" [shape=box];
    "Build SWOT matrix" [shape=box];
    "Identify key risks" [shape=box];
    "Score probability and impact" [shape=box];
    "Develop mitigation strategies" [shape=box];
    "Write 04-risk-assessment.md" [shape=box, style=filled, fillcolor="#e8f5e9"];

    "Verify run_id and all inputs exist" -> "Read all prior sections";
    "Read all prior sections" -> "Build SWOT matrix";
    "Build SWOT matrix" -> "Identify key risks";
    "Identify key risks" -> "Score probability and impact";
    "Score probability and impact" -> "Develop mitigation strategies";
    "Develop mitigation strategies" -> "Write 04-risk-assessment.md";
}

Step 1: Read All Prior Sections

Read all files using the exact run_id. Synthesize key findings from each.

Step 2: Build SWOT Matrix

Draw from all sources:

• Strengths: What advantages does this idea have? (unique features, team, timing)
• Weaknesses: What internal factors work against it? (resources, experience, gaps)
• Opportunities: What external factors favor it? (trends, gaps, regulation changes)
• Threats: What external factors endanger it? (competitors, regulation, market shifts)

Step 3: Identify and Score Risks

For each risk:

• Category: Market / Technical / Financial / Operational / Legal
• Probability: High / Medium / Low
• Impact: High / Medium / Low
• Severity: Critical / High / Medium / Low (derived from probability x impact)
• Mitigation strategy
• Contingency plan

Step 4: Write Output

Ensure the output directory exists: mkdir -p docs/reports/<run_id>

Save to docs/reports/<run_id>/04-risk-assessment.md:

## SWOT Analysis

**Run ID:** <run_id>

| | Helpful | Harmful |
|---|---------|---------|
| **Internal** | **Strengths** | **Weaknesses** |
| | - [S1] | - [W1] |
| | - [S2] | - [W2] |
| **External** | **Opportunities** | **Threats** |
| | - [O1] | - [T1] |
| | - [O2] | - [T2] |

## Risk Assessment

### Risk Matrix

| # | Risk | Category | Probability | Impact | Severity |
|---|------|----------|-------------|--------|----------|
| 1 | [description] | Market | High/Med/Low | High/Med/Low | Critical/High/Med/Low |
| 2 | [description] | Financial | High/Med/Low | High/Med/Low | Critical/High/Med/Low |

### Detailed Risk Analysis

#### Risk 1: [Name]
- **Description:** [what could go wrong]
- **Trigger:** [what would cause this]
- **Impact:** [consequences if it happens]
- **Mitigation:** [how to prevent or reduce]
- **Contingency:** [what to do if it happens anyway]

### Risk Summary
- **Critical risks:** X
- **High risks:** X
- **Medium risks:** X
- **Low risks:** X
- **Overall risk profile:** [Low / Moderate / High / Very High]