Market Research

Overview

Research the market for a business idea using WebSearch and WebFetch. Produce a structured market analysis section with TAM/SAM/SOM estimates, trends, and sources.

Inputs

• run_id: Provided by idea-intake or the user (format: YYYY-MM-DD-<slug>-<hhmm>)
• Business brief: docs/business-briefs/<run_id>.md

Output

• File: docs/reports/<run_id>/01-market-research.md

Process

digraph market_research {
    "Verify run_id exists" [shape=box];
    "Read business brief" [shape=box];
    "Search market size data" [shape=box];
    "Search industry trends" [shape=box];
    "Search regulatory landscape" [shape=box];
    "Search technology trends" [shape=box];
    "Synthesize findings" [shape=box];
    "Write 01-market-research.md" [shape=box, style=filled, fillcolor="#e8f5e9"];

    "Verify run_id exists" -> "Read business brief";
    "Read business brief" -> "Search market size data";
    "Read business brief" -> "Search industry trends";
    "Read business brief" -> "Search regulatory landscape";
    "Read business brief" -> "Search technology trends";
    "Search market size data" -> "Synthesize findings";
    "Search industry trends" -> "Synthesize findings";
    "Search regulatory landscape" -> "Synthesize findings";
    "Search technology trends" -> "Synthesize findings";
    "Synthesize findings" -> "Write 01-market-research.md";
}

Step 1: Read the Business Brief

Read docs/business-briefs/<run_id>.md and extract:

• Industry/niche
• Geographic focus
• Target audience segment
• Business model type

Step 2: Research Market Size (TAM/SAM/SOM)

Use WebSearch with queries like:

• "[industry] market size [year]"
• "[industry] market forecast [geographic focus]"
• "[niche] total addressable market"

Calculate or find:

• TAM (Total Addressable Market): The entire market for the product category
• SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market): The segment reachable with the business model
• SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market): Realistic first-year capture

Step 3: Research Industry Trends

Search for:

• Growth rate (CAGR) and direction
• Key market drivers
• Emerging technologies in the space
• Consumer/buyer behavior shifts
• Regulatory changes or risks

Step 4: Write Output

Ensure the output directory exists: mkdir -p docs/reports/<run_id>

Save to docs/reports/<run_id>/01-market-research.md:

## Market Research

**Run ID:** <run_id>

### Market Size

| Metric | Value | Source |
|--------|-------|--------|
| TAM | $X.XB | [source] |
| SAM | $X.XB | [source] |
| SOM (Year 1) | $X.XM | Estimated |

### Market Trends

| Trend | Impact | Direction |
|-------|--------|-----------|
| [trend 1] | [description] | Growing/Declining |

### Growth Dynamics
- CAGR: X.X% (YYYY-YYYY)
- Key drivers: [list]

### Regulatory Environment
[Summary of relevant regulations, if any]

### Technology Trends
[Relevant technology shifts]

### Sources
- [Source 1](url)
- [Source 2](url)

Quality Standards

• Every numeric claim MUST have a source
• Use recent data (within last 2 years when possible)
• Clearly distinguish estimates from cited data
• If data is scarce, state this explicitly rather than guessing
• Include at least 3 different sources