Financial Modeling

Overview

Build a basic financial model for a business idea based on the business brief and market research data. Includes unit economics, 3-scenario revenue forecast, cost structure, and break-even analysis.

Inputs

• run_id: From idea-intake (format: YYYY-MM-DD-<slug>-<hhmm>)
• Business brief: docs/business-briefs/<run_id>.md
• Market research: docs/reports/<run_id>/01-market-research.md
• Competitor analysis: docs/reports/<run_id>/02-competitor-analysis.md

Output

• File: docs/reports/<run_id>/03-financial-model.md

Process

digraph financial_modeling {
    "Verify run_id and read inputs" [shape=box];
    "Ask clarifying questions if needed" [shape=box];
    "Calculate unit economics" [shape=box];
    "Build cost structure" [shape=box];
    "Create 3-scenario forecast" [shape=box];
    "Calculate break-even" [shape=box];
    "Write 03-financial-model.md" [shape=box, style=filled, fillcolor="#e8f5e9"];

    "Verify run_id and read inputs" -> "Ask clarifying questions if needed";
    "Ask clarifying questions if needed" -> "Calculate unit economics";
    "Calculate unit economics" -> "Build cost structure";
    "Build cost structure" -> "Create 3-scenario forecast";
    "Create 3-scenario forecast" -> "Calculate break-even";
    "Calculate break-even" -> "Write 03-financial-model.md";
}

Step 1: Read Inputs

Read all three input files using the exact run_id. Extract:

• Target audience and willingness to pay (from brief)
• Market size and growth (from market research)
• Competitor pricing (from competitor analysis)

Step 2: Ask Clarifying Questions (if needed)

If the brief lacks detail, ask the user via AskUserQuestion:

• Expected average price point
• Main cost categories
• Team size at launch
• Customer acquisition channels

Step 3: Build the Model

Unit Economics

• CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost): Based on industry benchmarks + stated channels
• ARPU (Average Revenue Per User): Based on pricing model
• LTV (Lifetime Value): ARPU multiplied by average customer lifespan
• LTV/CAC ratio: Must be greater than 3 for viability

Cost Structure

• Fixed costs (team, infrastructure, tools)
• Variable costs (per-customer costs)
• One-time costs (development, legal, launch)

Revenue Forecast (3 scenarios, months 1-36)

• Pessimistic: Low acquisition, high churn
• Base: Industry-average metrics
• Optimistic: Strong product-market fit

Break-even Analysis

• Monthly fixed costs divided by (ARPU minus variable cost per customer)
• Months to break-even in each scenario

Step 4: Write Output

Ensure the output directory exists: mkdir -p docs/reports/<run_id>

Save to docs/reports/<run_id>/03-financial-model.md:

## Financial Model

**Run ID:** <run_id>

### Unit Economics

| Metric | Value | Assumption |
|--------|-------|------------|
| ARPU (Monthly) | $X | [basis] |
| CAC | $X | [basis] |
| LTV | $X | [calculation] |
| LTV/CAC | X.X | [interpretation] |
| Gross Margin | X% | [basis] |

### Cost Structure

| Category | Monthly Cost | Type |
|----------|-------------|------|
| Team | $X | Fixed |
| Infrastructure | $X | Fixed |
| Marketing | $X | Variable |
| [Other] | $X | [type] |
| **Total Fixed** | **$X** | |
| **Variable per Customer** | **$X** | |

### Revenue Forecast (36 months)

| Month | Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic |
|-------|-------------|------|------------|
| 3 | $X | $X | $X |
| 6 | $X | $X | $X |
| 12 | $X | $X | $X |
| 24 | $X | $X | $X |
| 36 | $X | $X | $X |

### Break-Even Analysis

| Scenario | Customers Needed | Months to Break-Even |
|----------|-----------------|---------------------|
| Pessimistic | X | X |
| Base | X | X |
| Optimistic | X | X |

### Key Assumptions
- [Assumption 1]
- [Assumption 2]

### Financial Health Indicators
- Burn rate: $X/month
- Runway (with stated budget): X months
- Funding gap (if any): $X

Quality Standards

• All numbers must show their assumptions
• Use industry benchmarks where available, cite sources
• State uncertainty ranges for key assumptions
• Flag any metrics below healthy thresholds (e.g. LTV/CAC less than 3)