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Serennity007Serennity007/invest-skill/skills/fundamental-analysis/SKILL.md

fundamental-analysis

Skill0 starsChanged 3 months agoMITView on GitHub

Deep fundamental analysis of US stocks using financial statements

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  1. Distinctive:

    All analysis concludes with this standardized block:

    line 28

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SKILL.md

Fundamental Analysis

This skill has been merged into stock-eval. Use /us-stock-analysis:stock-eval for comprehensive fundamental + quality + valuation analysis.

Quick Reference — Key Ratios

RatioFormulaWhat It Measures
P/E (Price-to-Earnings)Market Price / EPSHow much investors pay per dollar of earnings; compare to peers and history
P/B (Price-to-Book)Market Price / Book Value per SharePremium over net asset value; useful for financials and asset-heavy businesses
P/S (Price-to-Sales)Market Cap / RevenueValuation relative to revenue; useful when earnings are negative or depressed
EV/EBITDAEnterprise Value / EBITDACapital-structure-neutral earnings multiple; standard M&A and cross-sector benchmark
ROE (Return on Equity)Net Income / Shareholders' EquityProfitability relative to equity book value; decompose with DuPont for quality assessment
ROIC (Return on Invested Capital)NOPAT / Invested CapitalTrue economic return on all capital deployed; compare to WACC to assess value creation
Current RatioCurrent Assets / Current LiabilitiesShort-term liquidity; >1.5x generally healthy; <1.0x signals potential liquidity stress
D/E (Debt-to-Equity)Total Debt / Shareholders' EquityFinancial leverage; higher ratio = more risk but also more return amplification

For the full analysis framework — income statement line-item breakdown, working capital cycle, DuPont decomposition, cash conversion cycle, Porter's Five Forces, Piotroski F-Score, DCF, ROIC/WACC, and risk matrix — use /us-stock-analysis:stock-eval.

Standard Signal Output

All analysis concludes with this standardized block:

## Thesis Invalidation

After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:

**If signal is BULLISH — thesis breaks if:**
- Price closes below the MA200 / key support level identified in this analysis on above-average volume
- revenue growth decelerates below 5% for 2 consecutive quarters AND gross margin contracts >200bps
- Macro regime shift: Fed pivots hawkish unexpectedly, recession probability >60%

**If signal is BEARISH — thesis breaks if:**
- Price closes above key resistance / MA200 level with volume confirmation
- revenue reaccelerates >15% AND margin expansion resumes
- Fundamental improvement: surprise earnings beat >20% with guidance raise

**Re-run this analysis when:**
- [ ] Next earnings release
- [ ] Price moves ±15% from current level
- [ ] 60 days have elapsed
- [ ] Material news event (acquisition, leadership change, regulatory decision)

╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝

Score Guide: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish Confidence: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals) Horizon: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)

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