Horizon Scanning

Horizon scanning identifies emerging threats, opportunities, and developments that could impact the organisation's security posture in the medium to long term (6-24 months).

Process

1. Define Scope

• Time horizon (6 months? 12 months? 24 months?)
• Focus areas (specific sectors, threat types, geographies)
• Stakeholder needs (what decisions will this inform?)

2. Identify Weak Signals

Weak signals are early indicators of emerging trends. Sources:

• Academic research and conference papers (BlackHat, DEF CON, CCC, academic journals)
• Underground forum discussions (new tools, techniques being discussed)
• Patent filings and startup activity (indicators of new capabilities)
• Geopolitical developments (sanctions, conflicts, elections)
• Regulatory changes (new compliance requirements creating new attack surfaces)
• Technology adoption trends (new tech = new attack surface)

3. Categorise Signals

4. Develop Scenarios

For each significant signal, develop three scenarios:

• Best case: Signal does not materialise or is mitigated
• Worst case: Signal materialises with maximum impact
• Most likely: Balanced assessment based on available evidence

5. Assess Impact and Likelihood

For each scenario:

• Likelihood (using probability yardstick from likelihood-language skill)
• Impact on organisation (Critical/High/Moderate/Low/Negligible)
• Time to materialise
• Confidence in assessment

6. Identify Early Warning Indicators

For each high-impact scenario, define:

• What observable indicators would suggest this is materialising?
• Where would we see these indicators? (collection sources)
• How frequently should we monitor?

Output Template

## Horizon Scanning Report: [Focus Area]
**Period**: [Time horizon]
**Date**: YYYY-MM-DD

### Executive Summary
[Key emerging threats and their implications]

### Emerging Threats

#### [Threat 1]: [Title]
- **Signal strength**: Weak / Emerging / Established
- **Time horizon**: [When could this materialise?]
- **Likelihood**: [Probability yardstick term]
- **Potential impact**: [Critical/High/Moderate/Low]
- **Confidence**: [Level with rationale]
- **Description**: [What is this threat and why does it matter?]
- **Early warning indicators**: [What to watch for]
- **Recommended action**: [Proactive steps]

### Scenario Analysis
[For top 2-3 threats, develop best/worst/most likely scenarios]

### Collection Gaps
[What we need to monitor but currently can't]

Common Signals to Monitor (CTI)

• AI-powered phishing/deepfakes maturation
• Quantum computing impact on cryptography
• Supply chain security tooling gaps
• Cloud-native attack technique evolution
• Ransomware business model evolution
• Nation-state cyber capability proliferation
• Infostealer-to-ransomware pipeline evolution
• Edge device/IoT exploitation trends