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alpha-finder

Skill1 starsChanged 13 days agoMITView on GitHub

Market Oracle for prediction market intelligence - Polymarket and Kalshi research, probability assessments, market sentiment analysis, and arbitrage opportunity identification. Use when users want to research prediction markets, analyze betting odds, or find market inefficiencies. Costs $0.03 USDC per request via x402 protocol on Base network.

The file

We split this skill into the rules it gives an agent

3 rules. About 0 are common, 3 are distinctive, and 0 are very specific to this project.

  • ≈0

    Common · estimate

    Many files like this have a rule of this kind.

  • ≈3

    Distinctive · estimate

    This author's own choices. Worth a look.

  • 0

    Very specific

    Tied to their project's names, files or tools. Probably skip.

  • Common
  • Distinctive
  • Very specific
  1. Distinctive:

    Create the config file:

    line 26
  2. Distinctive:

    Run the market research script with a query about prediction markets or events:

    line 40
  3. Distinctive:

    Due Diligence: Verify market probabilities before betting

    line 100

≈ “Common” is an estimate: at least 1 in 5 of the 350,495 skill files we read have a rule of the same kind, not the same words. “Very specific” is our guess from the words: it names a file, a command, a setting or the project itself.

Keep what fits and drop the rest. Your version, ready for your agents.
Files
SKILL.md

Alpha Finder (Market Oracle)

Research prediction markets and find alpha using AI-powered market intelligence across Polymarket, Kalshi, and traditional sources.

Configuration

The private key must be available via one of these methods:

Option 1: Environment variable

export X402_PRIVATE_KEY="0x..."

Option 2: Config file (Recommended)

The script checks for x402-config.json in these locations (in order):

  1. Current directory: ./x402-config.json
  2. Home directory: ~/.x402-config.json ← Recommended
  3. Working directory: $PWD/x402-config.json

Create the config file:

{
  "private_key": "0x1234567890abcdef..."
}

Example (home directory - works for any user):

echo '{"private_key": "0x..."}' > ~/.x402-config.json

Usage

Run the market research script with a query about prediction markets or events:

scripts/analyze.sh "<market query>"

The script:

  • Executes market intelligence research with payment handling
  • Costs $0.03 USDC per request (Base network)
  • Searches web, GitHub, Reddit, and X for comprehensive analysis
  • Returns AI-processed market insights and probability assessments

Examples

User: "What are the odds for Bitcoin hitting $100k?"

scripts/analyze.sh "Bitcoin 100k prediction market odds"

User: "Find arbitrage opportunities in election markets"

scripts/analyze.sh "2024 election prediction market arbitrage"

User: "Analyze Polymarket odds on AI developments"

scripts/analyze.sh "Polymarket AI development predictions"

User: "What's the market sentiment on climate policy outcomes?"

scripts/analyze.sh "climate policy prediction markets Kalshi Polymarket"

Capabilities

  • Polymarket research - Event analysis and odds tracking
  • Kalshi market analysis - Regulated prediction market insights
  • Multi-source intelligence - Searches web, GitHub, Reddit, and X
  • Probability assessments - AI-powered market sentiment analysis
  • Arbitrage identification - Spot inefficiencies across markets
  • Event research - Deep dive into specific prediction market events
  • Historical tracking - Compare current odds to historical patterns

Data Sources

The tool automatically searches across:

  • Polymarket events and odds
  • Kalshi regulated markets
  • Reddit discussions and sentiment
  • X/Twitter market commentary
  • GitHub repositories (for tech-related predictions)
  • Web sources for news and analysis

Error Handling

  • "Payment failed: Not enough USDC" → Inform user to top up Base wallet with USDC
  • "X402 private key missing" → Guide user to configure private key (see Configuration above)
  • Timeout errors → The API has a 5-minute timeout; comprehensive research may take time

Use Cases

  • Trading: Find mispriced markets and arbitrage opportunities
  • Research: Analyze market sentiment on specific events
  • Due Diligence: Verify market probabilities before betting
  • Portfolio Management: Track prediction market positions
  • News Analysis: Understand how events impact market odds

Download now (ZIP)

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