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prestariusprestarius/jet-skills-stack/skills/estimate/SKILL.md

estimate

Skill1 starsChanged 2 months agoMITView on GitHub

Estimate effort for a feature, plan, or backlog with explicit assumptions and confidence ranges — never a single confident number. Use whenever the user asks "how long will this take", "estimate this", "size the backlog", "t-shirt sizes for these", or a plan/issue set needs effort attached before commitment.

28 other projects use a version of this.

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Projects with it also use team-audio, playtest-report and 10 more.

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  • +3 more from CoralGame
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The file

Files
SKILL.md

Produce estimates a stakeholder can trust because the uncertainty is visible, not hidden.

  1. Decompose first. Break the work into independently estimable items (reuse the Epic / US / Task numbering from the working agreement if the input is a backlog; if items are too vague to size, say which and why). Read ./CONTEXT.md for the team's units and velocity conventions.
  2. Estimate per item, as a range. Three-point (optimistic / likely / pessimistic) for anything consequential; T-shirt sizes only when the audience asked for rough order. State the unit explicitly (person-days, sprints) — never bare numbers.
  3. Surface what drives the spread. List the assumptions each estimate rests on and the unknowns that dominate the pessimistic tail. Where one unknown dwarfs the rest, recommend a spike via the prototype skill to shrink it before anyone commits to the number.
  4. Aggregate honestly. Sum the ranges, don't sum the likely values and call it the total. Give the total as a range with a stated confidence, and flag dependency chains where one slip cascades.
  5. State the invalidation conditions. What change (scope, staffing, a discovered constraint) would void the estimate — so the reader knows when to ask again.

An estimate with no assumptions listed is a guess in a suit. If the input is genuinely un-estimable, say so and name the one question that would change that.

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