Bus Factor Analysis

Identify single points of failure and coverage gaps across your team's codebases. Focuses on realistic risk assessment using meaningful time windows (not single-month snapshots).

When to Trigger

• "bus factor", "bus test", "single point of failure"
• "coverage gaps", "who knows what", "backup coverage"
• "risk assessment", "knowledge silos"
• As part of quarterly team health review

Critical Methodology Rules

Time Window (MOST IMPORTANT)

Minimum analysis period: 3 months (1 quarter)

Why:

• Single months are skewed by PTO, sprint focus, incident response
• People naturally concentrate on specific projects for 2-4 week sprints
• One month makes healthy concentration look like dangerous silos
• Quarterly view shows realistic backup patterns

When to use different windows:

• Standard analysis: 3 months (1 quarter)
• Annual review: 6-12 months for long-term patterns
• Emergency assessment: 1 month ONLY if explicitly requested AND with heavy disclaimers about data quality

NEVER present single-month data as authoritative without explicit user request.

Meaningful Engagement Threshold

A person counts as a "meaningful contributor" if they meet EITHER:

• Authored 2+ PRs in the period, OR
• Gave 5+ reviews in the period

Rationale:

• Pure reviewers provide backup knowledge but can't ship fixes alone
• 1 PR could be a one-off drive-by, 2+ shows familiarity
• 5 reviews = engaged with the codebase enough to understand it

Weighted Activity Scoring

When calculating "primary contributor" or engagement intensity:

• PRs authored: 3x weight (shipping code = deeper knowledge)
• Reviews given: 1x weight (reviewing = understanding, but not hands-on)
• Issues touched: 1x weight (triage/planning engagement)

Data Sources

Required:

• data/YYYY-MM/{login}-prs.json — authored PRs per member per month
• data/YYYY-MM/{login}-reviews.json — reviews given per member per month
• data/team.json — team roster

Optional:

• data/YYYY-MM/{login}-issues.json — issue activity (adds context but not critical)

Process

Step 1: Validate Time Window

• Default to 3 months if user doesn't specify
• If user says "last month" or "this month", confirm: "Bus factor analysis needs at least a quarter of data for accuracy. Should I analyze the last 3 months instead?"
• NEVER silently analyze 1 month and present it as definitive

Step 2: Load Activity Data

For each team member across the time period:

For each repo:
  PRs_authored = count of PRs in that repo
  Reviews_given = count of reviews in that repo
  
  Engagement_score = (PRs_authored * 3) + (Reviews_given * 1)
  
  Is_meaningful_contributor = (PRs_authored >= 2) OR (Reviews_given >= 5)

Step 3: Calculate Bus Factor Per Repo

Bus_factor = count of team members where Is_meaningful_contributor = true

Risk_level:
  🔴 Bus factor 0-1: Single point of failure (or abandoned repo)
  🟡 Bus factor 2: Fragile (one person out = risk)
  🟢 Bus factor 3+: Healthy coverage

Step 4: Identify Concentration vs Single Point of Failure

Key distinction:

• Concentration = One person does most work BUT others can back them up
• Single Point of Failure = One person does work AND nobody else touched it

Calculate for each repo:

• Primary contributor = person with highest engagement score
• Primary's share = their score / total team score for that repo
• Backup count = number of other meaningful contributors

Risk assessment:

• Primary share > 70% AND backup count = 0 → 🔴 True single point of failure
• Primary share > 70% AND backup count >= 1 → 🟡 Heavy concentration but covered
• Primary share 40-70% → 🟢 Good distributed ownership
• Primary share < 40% → 🟢 Very distributed (or no clear owner)

Step 5: Team Member Breadth Analysis

For each person:

• Repo count = number of repos where they're a meaningful contributor
• Primary repos = repos where they have >50% of activity
• Breadth score = repo count / team average

Signals:

• Breadth < 0.5 team average AND primary share > 80% in top repo → 🔴 Siloed specialist
• Breadth < team average → 🟡 Focused contributor
• Breadth >= team average → 🟢 Cross-functional
• Breadth > 1.5x team average → 🟢 Polyglot/reviewer

Output Format

# Bus Factor Analysis: {period}

**Analysis Period:** {start_date} to {end_date} ({N} months)  
**Team Size:** {N} members  
**Active Repos:** {N} repositories with activity

---

## Executive Summary

| Risk Level | Count | Repos |
|------------|-------|-------|
| 🔴 Single Point of Failure (0-1) | {N} | {list} |
| 🟡 Fragile Coverage (2) | {N} | {list} |
| 🟢 Healthy Coverage (3+) | {N} | {list} |

**Overall Health:** {Green/Yellow/Red} — {brief assessment}

---

## Coverage by Repository

| Repository | Bus Factor | Primary | Primary % | Backups | Risk |
|------------|-----------|---------|-----------|---------|------|
| auth-service | 4 | alice | 45% | bob, carol, dave | 🟢 Healthy |
| data-pipeline | 1 | dave | 94% | — | 🔴 No backup |
| api-gateway | 3 | bob | 52% | alice, carol | 🟢 Covered |

---

## 🔴 Critical Risks (if any)

### {repo-name}
- **Bus factor:** 1
- **Primary:** @username (94% of activity)
- **Backup coverage:** None
- **Activity:** 12 PRs, 3 reviews (all from primary)
- **Risk:** If @username is unavailable, no one else can maintain this service
- **Recommendation:** {specific action}

---

## 🟡 Areas of Concentration (if any)

### {repo-name}
- **Bus factor:** 2-3
- **Primary:** @username (68% of activity)
- **Backups:** @user2 (4 PRs), @user3 (8 reviews)
- **Assessment:** Heavy concentration but adequate backup exists
- **Recommendation:** {if needed, or "Monitor" if acceptable}

---

## Team Breadth Analysis

| Member | Repos Touched | Primary Repos | Breadth | Signal |
|--------|---------------|---------------|---------|--------|
| alice | 6 | 1 (auth) | 1.2x | 🟢 Distributed |
| bob | 5 | 2 (api, infra) | 1.0x | 🟢 Balanced |
| dave | 2 | 1 (pipeline) | 0.4x | 🔴 Siloed |

**Team Average Breadth:** {N} repos per person

---

## Recommendations

### Immediate Actions (if any 🔴 risks exist)
1. {Specific action for specific repo/person}
2. {Cross-training recommendation}

### Medium-Term Health (for 🟡 areas)
1. {Spread review load}
2. {Pair programming opportunities}

### Positive Patterns to Maintain
- {Callout good coverage examples}
- {Recognize cross-functional contributors}

---

## Methodology Notes

- **Analysis period:** {N} months (quarterly view for realistic patterns)
- **Meaningful contributor threshold:** 2+ PRs authored OR 5+ reviews given
- **Engagement weighting:** PRs (3x), Reviews (1x)
- **Risk levels:** Bus factor 0-1 (🔴), 2 (🟡), 3+ (🟢)

Comparison Formats (when analyzing trends)

If running analysis on multiple periods for comparison:

## Trend Analysis: {period1} vs {period2}

### Risk Changes

| Repo | Previous | Current | Change |
|------|----------|---------|--------|
| data-pipeline | 🔴 1 | 🟡 2 | ✅ carol added backup |
| deploy-infra | 🟡 2 | 🔴 1 | ⚠️ alice stopped contributing |

### Team Breadth Evolution

| Member | Previous | Current | Change |
|--------|----------|---------|--------|
| dave | 2 repos | 4 repos | ✅ Expanded scope |
| alice | 7 repos | 4 repos | ℹ️ Focused (may be intentional) |

Important Caveats to Include

Always include these disclaimers in your analysis:

1. "Bus factor measures contribution activity, not knowledge." Someone who reviewed 5 PRs may understand the code but can't ship fixes without repo access or ramp-up time.
2. "Concentration isn't always bad." Having a clear owner who knows a system deeply is valuable IF they have backup.
3. "Low activity ≠ abandoned." Stable, mature services naturally have less activity. Distinguish between "no one touched it because it's stable" vs "no one CAN touch it except Dave."
4. "New team members skew the data." Someone who joined 2 months ago will naturally have narrow scope. Note tenure when flagging "siloed" individuals.
5. "PTO/leave affects windows." If someone took 3 weeks off during the analysis period, their metrics will look lower. Adjust interpretation accordingly.

Example Triggers & Responses

User: "Run a bus factor analysis" → Analyze last 3 months, full format

User: "Bus factor for May" → Respond: "Bus factor needs at least a quarter of data for accuracy. Should I analyze Mar-May (3 months) instead?"

User: "Who can work on {repo-name}?" → Show contributors for that specific repo with activity breakdown

User: "Is dave siloed?" → Show dave's breadth analysis across repos with context

User: "Quick bus check" → Show just the executive summary table with risk counts

Integration with Other Skills

• Run as part of team-health-report for quarterly review
• Use data fetched by team-data-sync (no separate fetch needed)
• Complements review-network (who reviews whom) and nine-box (performance assessment)
• Informs review-cards by highlighting areas where people should expand

Key Takeaway

The goal is realistic risk assessment, not shaming people for focus areas.

Frame findings as:

• "Where do we need to build backup coverage?"
• "Who should we pair up for knowledge transfer?"
• "Which stable systems are actually fine with one expert?"

Not:

• "Dave is a silo" (accusatory)
• "This repo is abandoned" (without checking if it's just stable)
• "Everyone should touch everything" (unrealistic)