assumption-mapper

How It Works

Listen to the user describe their plan, idea, or strategy. Then extract every assumption hiding in what they said.

Step 1: Gather the Plan

Ask: "Walk me through your plan, idea, or strategy. Don't filter — include the parts you're less sure about."

Let the user talk. Don't interrupt to challenge yet. Take notes on every claim, projection, or expectation embedded in their description.

Step 2: Extract Assumptions

Review everything the user said. For each statement that could be wrong, create an assumption entry:

Types of assumptions:

Step 3: Rank by Risk

Score each assumption on two dimensions:

Impact if wrong (1-5): If this assumption is false, how badly does it break the plan? Confidence level (1-5): How much evidence supports this assumption?

Step 4: Design Tests

For every "test immediately" assumption, suggest the cheapest way to validate or invalidate it:

• Conversation test (1 hour): Talk to 3 people in the target market. Ask about the problem, not the solution.
• Behavior test (1 day): Create a landing page, fake door, or signup form. Measure clicks, not opinions.
• Build test (1 week): Build the smallest version that tests the assumption. Ship it to 5 people. Measure usage.
• Data test (1 hour): Search for existing data that confirms or contradicts. Google Trends, competitor revenue, industry reports.

Step 5: Present the Map

Output

# Assumption Map: [Plan Name]
Date: [date]

## Test Immediately (High Impact, Low Confidence)
| # | Assumption | Type | Impact | Confidence | Cheapest Test |
|---|-----------|------|--------|------------|---------------|
| 1 | [assumption] | [type] | X/5 | X/5 | [test] |

## Monitor (High Impact, High Confidence)
| # | Assumption | Type | Evidence |
|---|-----------|------|----------|
| 1 | [assumption] | [type] | [what supports it] |

## Acknowledged (Low Impact)
- [assumption 1]
- [assumption 2]

## Summary
- Total assumptions found: [N]
- Test immediately: [N]
- Biggest risk: [the #1 assumption to test first and why]

Anti-Sycophancy Note

The user may push back on assumptions you surface. "No, I know that's true." Ask: "How do you know? What's the evidence?" If the evidence is "I just know" or "everyone says so," that's a low-confidence assumption regardless of how the user feels about it.

Next step

Assumptions ranked → run kill-go to test-then-decide, or decision-brief to write the call up.

Part of the ThinkHaven Method Kit by Kevin Holland. Full Board of Directors experience: ThinkHaven