Polymarket Military Aircraft Tracker

Trade Polymarket strike/action markets using military aircraft ADS-B positioning via pref.trade.

Framework, not a production trading system. Read DISCLAIMER.md before connecting to a wallet with real funds.

Template skill. Defaults to dry-run mode. The --live flag is a deliberate opt-in for real-money execution. Configure tunables via env vars listed below.

Safety Rails

This skill executes real-money trades on Polymarket only when the --live flag is passed and the human's wallet is linked to their Simmer account. Trading is bounded by default:

• Dry-run is the default. python milaircraft_tracker.py shows cluster state and opportunities but executes no trades.
• $SIM paper sandbox option. Set TRADING_VENUE=sim to trade Simmer's virtual currency at real prices.
• Real-money trading requires explicit human verification. A wallet must be linked at simmer.markets/dashboard before any real trade lands.
• Per-trade cap. SIMMER_MILACFT_TRADE_SIZE defaults to $5.00 per trade.
• Region exposure cap. SIMMER_MILACFT_CLUSTER_CAP defaults to $25.00 open exposure per region.
• Daily kill switches. SIMMER_MILACFT_DAILY_LOSS_KILL and SIMMER_MILACFT_DAILY_TRADE_KILL stop new entries after the configured limits.
• Strategy-side safeguards. The skill checks Simmer market context, slippage, resolved-market warnings, duplicate positions, and cluster state before orders. Disable only with --no-safeguards.
• Reversibility. Open positions exit when price rises above SIMMER_MILACFT_EXIT_THRESHOLD, or when the regional aircraft cluster drops below its threshold.

If anything above is unclear, stop before passing --live.

Strategy Logic

The strategy watches military-tagged ADS-B aircraft via pref.trade's aviation.get_adsb_military MCP tool. Each scan fetches visible military aircraft once, filters them client-side into five target regions, then searches Polymarket for strike/action markets matching the fired region's keywords.

When a region has at least its configured aircraft threshold and a matching active market is priced below the entry threshold, the skill may buy YES. Position sizing is handled by simmer_sdk.sizing.size_position() using a conservative active-cluster prior and the SDK's minimum expected-value gate.

Test with TRADING_VENUE=sim before running real-money mode.

Setup

Required environment:

• SIMMER_API_KEY - get from simmer.markets/dashboard
• PREF_API_KEY, PREFERENCE_API_KEY, or ~/.config/preference/credentials.json - a pref.trade pref_agent_* key for the aircraft data source

Autonomous pref.trade key setup

Agents do not need to use the human browser sign-up flow. If no pref key exists, register an agent key directly and save it to the standard credentials file:

mkdir -p ~/.config/preference
python - <<'PY'
import json
import os
import stat
import urllib.request
from pathlib import Path

cred = Path.home() / ".config" / "preference" / "credentials.json"
if cred.exists():
    raise SystemExit(f"credentials already exist: {cred}")

payload = json.dumps({
    "name": "Military Aircraft Tracker Agent",
    "description": "Agent using pref.trade aviation data through the Simmer mil-aircraft tracker skill",
}).encode()
req = urllib.request.Request(
    "https://pref.trade/v1/agents/register",
    data=payload,
    headers={"Content-Type": "application/json"},
    method="POST",
)
with urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=30) as resp:
    data = json.loads(resp.read().decode())

# The api_key is shown once. Save it without printing it.
cred.write_text(json.dumps({"api_key": data["api_key"]}, indent=2))
os.chmod(cred, stat.S_IRUSR | stat.S_IWUSR)
print(f"saved pref credentials to {cred}")
print("claim_url available:", bool(data.get("claim_url")))
PY

Then verify the key and quota before any strategy run:

python milaircraft_tracker.py --check

The skill reads pref credentials in this order:

1. PREF_API_KEY
2. PREFERENCE_API_KEY
3. ~/.config/preference/credentials.json with shape {"api_key":"pref_agent_*"}

Keep the key out of terminal logs, issues, PRs, and prompts. If --check reports an anonymous identity or missing key, stop and fix the credential path before scanning.

MCP server config (alternative to env var)

If your agent runtime supports MCP server configs (OpenClaw, Hermes, Claude Code, etc.), you can connect to pref.trade as a Streamable HTTP MCP server instead of setting the env var:

mcpServers:
  pref:
    url: "https://pref.trade/mcp"
    transport: "streamable-http"
    headers:
      Authorization: "Bearer ${PREFERENCE_API_KEY}"

transport: "streamable-http" is required for OpenClaw (otherwise it defaults to legacy SSE and sends GET /mcp, which returns 400). Hermes uses Streamable HTTP by default for url-based servers, but the explicit line is compatible.

The skill's built-in pref_client.py HTTP shim works without this config. The MCP server config is for runtimes that manage tool connections natively.

Then install the SDK:

pip install --upgrade simmer-sdk

Configuration

Position sizing also supports the standard Simmer SDK sizing env vars from simmer_sdk.sizing, including SIMMER_POSITION_SIZING, SIMMER_KELLY_MULTIPLIER, and SIMMER_MIN_EV.

Quick Commands

# Dry run, no trades
python milaircraft_tracker.py

# Execute live trades
python milaircraft_tracker.py --live

# Use $SIM paper venue
TRADING_VENUE=sim python milaircraft_tracker.py --live

# Validate pref key and quota
python milaircraft_tracker.py --check

# Show current cluster dashboard
python milaircraft_tracker.py --status

# Show current Simmer positions
python milaircraft_tracker.py --positions

# View config
python milaircraft_tracker.py --config

How It Works

Each cycle the script:

1. Loads region bounds from regions.yaml
2. Calls pref.trade aviation.get_adsb_military
3. Filters aircraft into target regions by bounding box
4. Searches Polymarket for strike/action markets using region keywords
5. Checks price, source context, slippage, daily kill switches, and exposure caps
6. Sizes the position through Simmer SDK
7. Buys YES in eligible markets
8. Sells open positions when the price exits or the cluster goes stale
9. Tags all trades with sdk:milaircraft

Source Tagging

All trades are tagged with source: "sdk:milaircraft" and skill_slug: "polymarket-mil-aircraft-tracker". This keeps P&L attribution separate from other skills and lets Simmer enforce cross-skill conflict checks.

Troubleshooting

PREF_API_KEY not set - create a pref.trade agent key with the autonomous setup command above, export it as PREF_API_KEY/PREFERENCE_API_KEY, or save it to ~/.config/preference/credentials.json. Run python milaircraft_tracker.py --check before scanning.

SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable not set - get a key from simmer.markets/dashboard.

No clusters fired - military aircraft are visible globally, but may not be inside one of the five configured regions.

No markets found - Polymarket may not have active strike/action markets matching the region keywords.

Safeguard blocked - the Simmer context endpoint flagged a resolved market, high slippage, or flip-flop risk.

Daily kill switch active - reset happens automatically on the next UTC day, or inspect ~/.simmer/milaircraft-tracker/state.json.