Polymarket Elon Tweet Trader

Trade "Elon Musk # tweets" markets on Polymarket using XTracker post count data.

🚨 Framework, not a production trading system. Read DISCLAIMER.md before connecting to a wallet with real funds.

How the Strategy Works

Polymarket runs weekly "How many tweets will Elon post?" events with range buckets (e.g., 200-219, 220-239, 240-259). Exactly one bucket resolves YES = $1. The strategy:

1. Get XTracker pace — XTracker tracks Elon's real-time post count and projects the final total
2. Find center bucket — The bucket containing XTracker's projected pace
3. Buy adjacent buckets — Buy the center + neighbors (configurable spread)
4. Check combined cost — Only buy if the sum of bucket prices < $1 (the +EV threshold)
5. One bucket pays $1 — When the event resolves, one of your buckets pays $1, covering costs

Setup Flow

When user asks to install or configure this skill:

1. Install the Simmer SDK

   pip install simmer-sdk

2. Ask for Simmer API key
   • They can get it from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab
   • Store in environment as SIMMER_API_KEY
3. Ask for wallet private key (required for live trading)
   • This is the private key for their Polymarket wallet (the wallet that holds USDC)
   • Store in environment as WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY
   • The SDK uses this to sign orders client-side automatically — no manual signing needed
4. Ask about settings (or confirm defaults)
   • Max bucket sum: Combined price threshold (default 90¢)
   • Max position: Amount per bucket (default $5.00)
   • Bucket spread: How many neighbors to buy (default 1 = center ± 1)
   • Exit threshold: When to sell (default 65¢)
5. Save settings to config.json or environment variables
6. Set up cron (disabled by default — user must enable scheduling)

Configuration

Config priority: env vars > config.json > defaults.

Quick Commands

# Check account balance and positions
python scripts/status.py

# Detailed position list
python scripts/status.py --positions

API Reference:

• Base URL: https://api.simmer.markets
• Auth: Authorization: Bearer $SIMMER_API_KEY
• Portfolio: GET /api/sdk/portfolio
• Positions: GET /api/sdk/positions

Running the Skill

# Dry run (default — shows opportunities, no trades)
python elon_tweets.py

# Execute real trades
python elon_tweets.py --live

# With smart position sizing (uses portfolio balance)
python elon_tweets.py --live --smart-sizing

# Show XTracker stats only
python elon_tweets.py --stats

# Check positions only
python elon_tweets.py --positions

# View config
python elon_tweets.py --config

# Update config
python elon_tweets.py --set max_position_usd=10.00

# Disable safeguards (not recommended)
python elon_tweets.py --no-safeguards

# Quiet mode — only output on trades/errors (ideal for cron)
python elon_tweets.py --live --quiet

# Combine: frequent scanning, minimal noise
python elon_tweets.py --live --smart-sizing --quiet

How It Works

Each cycle the script:

1. Fetches active XTracker trackings for Elon Musk tweet events
2. Gets real-time stats: current count, projected pace, days remaining
3. Searches Simmer for matching tweet count markets (auto-imports if missing)
4. Finds the bucket matching XTracker's pace projection
5. Evaluates adjacent buckets (center ± spread)
6. Entry: If sum of cluster prices < max_bucket_sum → BUY each bucket
7. Exit: Checks open positions, sells if any bucket price > exit_threshold
8. Safeguards: Checks context for flip-flop warnings, slippage
9. Tagging: All trades tagged with sdk:elon-tweets for tracking

Auto-Import

If tweet count markets aren't on Simmer yet, the skill automatically imports them:

• Derives the Polymarket event URL from the XTracker tracking title
• Uses the SDK import endpoint (supports multi-outcome events)
• Imports all outcome buckets as a group
• Counts as 1 daily import regardless of bucket count

Smart Sizing

With --smart-sizing, position size is calculated as:

• 5% of available USDC balance (configurable via sizing_pct)
• Capped at max position setting ($5.00 default)
• Falls back to fixed size if portfolio unavailable

Safeguards

Before trading, the skill checks:

• Flip-flop warning: Skips if you've been reversing too much
• Slippage: Skips if estimated slippage > 15%
• Market status: Skips closed or resolved markets
• Extreme prices: Skips buckets priced > 98% or < 2%

Disable with --no-safeguards (not recommended).

Source Tagging

All trades are tagged with source: "sdk:elon-tweets". This means:

• Portfolio shows breakdown by strategy
• Other skills won't sell your tweet positions
• You can track tweet trading P&L separately

Example Output

🐦 Simmer Elon Tweet Trader
==================================================

⚙️ Configuration:
  Max bucket sum:  $0.90
  Max position:    $5.00
  Bucket spread:   1 (center ± 1 = 3 buckets)
  Exit threshold:  65%
  Data source:     xtracker

📊 XTracker Stats:
  Tracking: Elon Musk # tweets Feb 13 - Feb 20
  Current count: 187 posts
  Pace: 243 projected
  Days remaining: 2.3

🎯 Target cluster: 240-259 (center) + 220-239, 260-279
  240-259: $0.35
  220-239: $0.22
  260-279: $0.18
  Cluster sum: $0.75 (< $0.90 threshold) ✅

  Executing trades...
  ✅ Bought 14.3 shares of 240-259 @ $0.35
  ✅ Bought 22.7 shares of 220-239 @ $0.22
  ✅ Bought 27.8 shares of 260-279 @ $0.18

📊 Summary:
  Events scanned: 2
  Clusters evaluated: 2
  Trades executed: 3
  Exits: 0

Troubleshooting

"No XTracker trackings found"

• XTracker may not have active Elon tweet events
• New events usually start on Wednesdays/Thursdays

"Cluster sum $X.XX exceeds threshold"

• Buckets are too expensive — edge is too thin
• Wait for prices to drop or widen bucket_spread

"No matching Simmer markets found"

• Markets may not be imported yet — skill will auto-import on next run
• Check that your API key has import capacity (10/day free, 50/day Pro)

"Safeguard blocked: flip-flop warning"

• You've been changing direction too much on this market
• Wait before trading again

"External wallet requires a pre-signed order"

• WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY is not set in the environment
• The SDK signs orders automatically when this env var is present — no manual signing code needed
• Fix: export WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY=0x<your-polymarket-wallet-private-key>
• Do NOT attempt to sign orders manually or modify the skill code — the SDK handles it

"Balance shows $0 but I have funds on Polygon"

• Polymarket V2 (live 2026-04-28) uses pUSD (PolyUSD, 1:1 backed by USDC.e). If your wallet holds USDC.e, migrate at simmer.markets/dashboard with one click (~30s)
• If you bridged native USDC (Circle), swap to USDC.e first, then migrate to pUSD
• Full migration guide: docs.simmer.markets/v2-migration

"API key invalid"

• Get new key from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab