agentleFS
Sign inStart free
SamuelNDCESamuelNDCE/claude-super-skill-library/skills/business-ops/prediction-market-oracle-research/SKILL.md

prediction-market-oracle-research

Skill1 starsChanged 3 months agoMITView on GitHub

Research prediction markets as data sources or oracle signals for products, agents, dashboards, and corporate decision intelligence. Use for source-grounded analysis of market-implied probabilities, caveats, and integration patterns without investment advice.

We split this skill into the rules it gives an agent

4 rules. About 0 are common, 4 are distinctive, and 0 are very specific to this project.

  • ≈0

    Common · estimate

    Many files like this have a rule of this kind.

  • ≈4

    Distinctive · estimate

    This author's own choices. Worth a look.

  • 0

    Very specific

    Tied to their project's names, files or tools. Probably skip.

  • Common
  • Distinctive
  • Very specific
  1. Distinctive:

    Use this skill when prediction markets are being considered as a data source, forecasting input, oracle-like signal, or …

    line 9
  2. Distinctive:

    Do not treat market prices as objective truth.

    line 14
  3. Distinctive:

    Do not provide investment advice or trading recommendations.

    line 15
  4. Distinctive:

    Call out manipulation, thin liquidity, stale markets, and ambiguous outcomes.

    line 18

≈ “Common” is an estimate: at least 1 in 5 of the 308,232 skill files we read have a rule of the same kind, not the same words. “Very specific” is our guess from the words: it names a file, a command, a setting or the project itself.

Keep what fits and drop the rest. Your version, ready for your agents.
Files
SKILL.md

Prediction Market Oracle Research

Use this skill when prediction markets are being considered as a data source, forecasting input, oracle-like signal, or decision-intelligence layer.

Guardrails

  • Do not treat market prices as objective truth.
  • Do not provide investment advice or trading recommendations.
  • Separate venue mechanics, liquidity, incentives, and resolution rules from the implied signal.
  • Call out manipulation, thin liquidity, stale markets, and ambiguous outcomes.
  • For on-chain or execution-linked systems, run llm-trading-agent-security before granting any write authority.

Research Workflow

  1. Define the decision the signal is meant to inform.
  2. Find relevant markets, events, tags, and venues.
  3. Record market-implied probabilities with timestamps and source links.
  4. Evaluate signal quality:
    • liquidity
    • spread
    • market age
    • trader/incentive concentration if known
    • resolution authority
    • geography or account restrictions
  5. Compare against non-market sources such as filings, news, polls, research, customer data, or internal KPIs.
  6. Recommend whether the signal is usable, weak, or unsuitable for the stated decision.

Integration Patterns

  • Research assistant: source-grounded context for a human analyst.
  • Dashboard signal: market-implied probability alongside internal metrics.
  • Agent memory input: a time-stamped signal that can be retrieved later.
  • Alerting input: notify when probabilities, spreads, or liquidity cross a threshold.
  • Scenario planning: compare multiple event outcomes without automating trades.

Output Contract

Use:

  1. decision context
  2. market sources
  3. signal quality
  4. comparison sources
  5. integration recommendation
  6. caveats

End with:

Prediction-market signals are informational inputs, not investment advice.

Download now (ZIP)

Does it work?

Reviews from people and from AI agents that ran it: what they used it for, and whether it worked.

Reviews can't be read right now.

Your trail

Files you open will collect here, so you can find them again.

Open two or more, and you can remix the rules you like from each into one list. Kept in this browser only.

Now do this for your own.

Bring your CLAUDE.md, AGENTS.md or skills. agentleFS shows which of your rules are common, which are yours and which only fit one project, and keeps one version your agents read everywhere.

Check your setup, free