biz-validate: Business Hypothesis Validation Loop

A cyclical SOP based on Running Lean (Ash Maurya), Pretotyping (Alberto Savoia), and Hypothesis-Driven Entrepreneurship (HBS). This skill LOOPS — it does not run once and stop.

Framework sources:

• Running Lean 3rd Ed (Ash Maurya) — macro stages: Problem/Solution Fit → Product/Market Fit → Scale
• Pretotyping (Alberto Savoia, Google) — behavioral proof before building
• Reflect-Inquire-Learn (Eisenmann/Ries, HBS) — single experiment cycle

Entry Conditions

Run this skill when:

• biz-think acid test fails (cannot complete the one-sentence answer)
• An assumption in the business model needs validation
• Pivoting after a failed experiment
• User says "validate this" or "test this idea"

The Loop: Reflect → Hypothesize → Experiment → Learn → Update

     ┌─────────────────────────────────────┐
     │                                     │
     ▼                                     │
  REFLECT                                  │
  What is the riskiest assumption?         │
     │                                     │
     ▼                                     │
  HYPOTHESIZE                              │
  "At least X% of [target] will            │
   [action] if [condition]"                │
     │                                     │
     ▼                                     │
  EXPERIMENT                               │
  Run the cheapest possible test            │
  (hours, not weeks)                       │
     │                                     │
     ▼                                     │
  LEARN                                    │
  Did we hit the threshold?                │
     │                                     │
     ├── NO → Pivot or kill ──────────────►│
     │         Update canvas, re-enter     │
     │                                     │
     ├── YES → Next assumption ───────────►│
     │                                     │
     └── ALL VALIDATED → EXIT ─────────────┘

Max iterations: 5 per assumption. If an assumption cannot be validated in 5 cycles, kill the idea or pivot the fundamental approach.

Step 1: REFLECT — Identify the Riskiest Assumption

List all assumptions the business model depends on. Rank by:

• Impact if wrong: would this kill the business? (High/Medium/Low)
• Uncertainty: how confident are we? (Guess/Belief/Tested)

Pick the assumption that is High-impact AND Guess/Belief. This is what you test first.

Common assumption categories:

• Problem assumption: "This problem exists and is painful enough to pay to solve"
• Solution assumption: "Our solution actually solves this problem"
• Pricing assumption: "They will pay $X for this"
• Channel assumption: "We can reach them through [channel]"
• Retention assumption: "They will keep using this after the first time"

Step 2: HYPOTHESIZE — Write a Testable XYZ Hypothesis

Format (Savoia's Pretotyping):

"At least X% of [target audience] will [desired action] if [condition/offering]"

Rules:

• X must be a specific number, not "some" or "many"
• Target audience must be concrete, not "developers" but "DevOps engineers who use Terraform"
• Desired action must be behavioral (click, sign up, pay), not attitudinal (say they like it)
• Set the threshold BEFORE running the experiment, not after

Also set fail conditions: what result would KILL this hypothesis? Write it down. If you can't define failure, you can't learn.

Step 3: EXPERIMENT — Run the Cheapest Possible Test

Experiment types (ordered by cost, cheapest first):

Rules:

• Always prefer skin-in-the-game data (money, time invested) over opinions (surveys, "I would use this")
• "Would you use this?" is worthless. "Here's the payment page, buy now" is data.
• If an experiment takes more than 1 week, it's too expensive. Simplify.
• Search the web for existing data before running your own experiment (someone may have already validated this)

Step 4: LEARN — Evaluate Against Threshold

Compare results to your XYZ hypothesis threshold:

Pivot options (Steve Blank):

• Zoom-in pivot: one feature of the product becomes the whole product
• Zoom-out pivot: the whole product becomes one feature of a larger product
• Customer segment pivot: same product, different audience
• Customer need pivot: same audience, different problem
• Channel pivot: same product, different distribution channel
• Revenue model pivot: same product, different pricing/monetization

Kill criteria: if 3+ pivots on the same core idea all fail, kill it entirely. Start fresh with a new idea through biz-think.

Step 5: UPDATE — Revise the Lean Canvas

After each cycle, update these in auto memory (memory/validation_log.md):

• Experiment: hypothesis, method, result, date, learning
• AssumptionStatus: which assumptions are now Validated/Invalidated/Untested
• LeanCanvas: updated customer segment, problem, solution, channels, revenue based on learnings
• PivotHistory: if pivoted, record what changed and why

Exit Conditions

Exit to development (invoke pre-code):

• Problem assumption validated (people have this pain and will pay)
• Solution assumption validated (your approach solves it)
• At least 1 person has paid or committed to pay (pre-sale, LOI, deposit)
• biz-think acid test can now be completed in one sentence

Exit by killing:

• 3+ pivots failed on the same core idea
• No behavioral evidence of willingness to pay after 3 experiment cycles
• Store the kill decision and learnings in auto memory (memory/validation_log.md)

Do NOT exit because you're tired of iterating. Exit only when evidence supports the decision.

Macro Stages (Running Lean Traction Roadmap)

Track which stage you're in:

You are almost certainly at Stage 1. Do not skip to Stage 2 thinking.

Next Steps

Report to user: "Validation [PASS/FAIL]. Assumption: [which one]. Evidence: [what we found]"

Suggested next steps (user decides):

• All validated → "Run brand-build, then work-breakdown"
• Kill criteria met → "Start fresh with biz-think"
• Need experiment → "Run copy-craft for landing page"