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AdhamxonAdhamxon/claude-code-skills/.claude/skills/ab-test-analysis/SKILL.md

ab-test-analysis

Skill2 starsChanged 3 months agoMITView on GitHub

Analyze A/B test results with statistical significance, sample size validation, confidence intervals, and ship/extend/stop recommendations. Use when evaluating experiment results, checking if a test reached significance, interpreting split test data, or deciding whether to ship a variant.

We split this skill into the rules it gives an agent

3 rules. 0 are common, 3 are distinctive, and 0 are very specific to this project.

  • 0

    Common

    Most of the 4 edited versions we read keep these.

  • 3

    Distinctive

    This author's own choices. Worth a look.

  • 0

    Very specific

    Tied to their project's names, files or tools. Probably skip.

  • Common
  • Distinctive
  • Very specific
  1. Distinctive:

    If the user provides data files (CSV, Excel, or analytics exports), read and analyze them directly.

    line 14
  2. Distinctive:

    Use the formula: n = (Z²α/2 × 2 × p × (1-p)) / MDE²

    line 27
  3. Distinctive:

    If the user provides raw data, generate and run a Python script to calculate these.

    line 41

“Common” is measured: kept by at least 6 in 10 of the 4 edited versions of this file we could read. “Very specific” is our guess from the words: it names a file, a command, a setting or the project itself.

Keep what fits and drop the rest. Your version, ready for your agents.
Files
SKILL.md

A/B Test Analysis

Evaluate A/B test results with statistical rigor and translate findings into clear product decisions.

Context

You are analyzing A/B test results for $ARGUMENTS.

If the user provides data files (CSV, Excel, or analytics exports), read and analyze them directly. Generate Python scripts for statistical calculations when needed.

Instructions

  1. Understand the experiment:
    • What was the hypothesis?
    • What was changed (the variant)?
    • What is the primary metric? Any guardrail metrics?
    • How long did the test run?
    • What is the traffic split?
  2. Validate the test setup:
    • Sample size: Is the sample large enough for the expected effect size?
      • Use the formula: n = (Z²α/2 × 2 × p × (1-p)) / MDE²
      • Flag if the test is underpowered (<80% power)
    • Duration: Did the test run for at least 1-2 full business cycles?
    • Randomization: Any evidence of sample ratio mismatch (SRM)?
    • Novelty/primacy effects: Was there enough time to wash out initial behavior changes?
  3. Calculate statistical significance:

    • Conversion rate for control and variant
    • Relative lift: (variant - control) / control × 100
    • p-value: Using a two-tailed z-test or chi-squared test
    • Confidence interval: 95% CI for the difference
    • Statistical significance: Is p < 0.05?
    • Practical significance: Is the lift meaningful for the business?

    If the user provides raw data, generate and run a Python script to calculate these.

  4. Check guardrail metrics:
    • Did any guardrail metrics (revenue, engagement, page load time) degrade?
    • A winning primary metric with degraded guardrails may not be a true win
  5. Interpret results:

    OutcomeRecommendation
    Significant positive lift, no guardrail issuesShip it — roll out to 100%
    Significant positive lift, guardrail concernsInvestigate — understand trade-offs before shipping
    Not significant, positive trendExtend the test — need more data or larger effect
    Not significant, flatStop the test — no meaningful difference detected
    Significant negative liftDon't ship — revert to control, analyze why
  6. Provide the analysis summary:
    ## A/B Test Results: [Test Name]
    
    **Hypothesis**: [What we expected]
    **Duration**: [X days] | **Sample**: [N control / M variant]
    
    | Metric | Control | Variant | Lift | p-value | Significant? |
    |---|---|---|---|---|---|
    | [Primary] | X% | Y% | +Z% | 0.0X | Yes/No |
    | [Guardrail] | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
    
    **Recommendation**: [Ship / Extend / Stop / Investigate]
    **Reasoning**: [Why]
    **Next steps**: [What to do]

Think step by step. Save as markdown. Generate Python scripts for calculations if raw data is provided.


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