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martincjarvismartincjarvis/development-skills/skills/change-risk-rollback/SKILL.md

change-risk-rollback

Skill4 starsChanged 10 months agoMITView on GitHub

Use when planning release, deployment, or infrastructure changes. Produces risk assessment with failure modes, impact rating, rollback procedures, and prerequisite execution criteria before deployment.

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SKILL.md

Change Risk & Rollback

Overview

Produce explicit risk and rollback analysis before deployment. Enumerate failure modes, assess impact, define rollback procedures, and establish Go/No-Go criteria.

REQUIRED: superpowers:verification-before-completion, superpowers:systematic-debugging

When to Use

  • Planning release or deployment changes
  • Requesting assessment of operational risk
  • Discussing rollback procedures
  • Planning infrastructure or configuration changes
  • Preparing production deployment

Core Workflow

  1. Identify change scope (component, dependencies, traffic, window)
  2. Enumerate failure modes (minimum 3 with symptom, detection, impact, probability)
  3. Rate each risk (impact x probability)
  4. Define rollback procedure (detection, Go/No-Go criteria, execution steps, timeline)
  5. List prerequisites (backups, monitoring, on-call, previous version)
  6. Select deployment strategy (Blue-Green, Canary, Rolling, Big-Bang)
  7. Define success criteria (measurable, time-bound)

See references/failure-modes.md, references/rollback-templates.md, and references/deployment-strategies.md for details.

Quick Reference

Risk LevelImpact x ProbabilityAction Required
CriticalHIGH x HIGHExecutive approval, full plan
HighHIGH x MEDFull rollback plan required
MediumMED x MEDStandard rollback procedures
LowLOW x LOWMinimal documentation

Red Flags - STOP

  • "Deployment is straightforward"
  • "Can roll back if needed"
  • "No time for risk analysis"
  • "Testing caught everything"
  • "We'll figure it out if something breaks"

All mean: Apply skill before deployment or document explicit risk acceptance.

Rationalizations Table

ExcuseReality
"Deployment is simple"No deployment is risk-free. Even simple changes have unexpected impacts.
"Can roll back if needed"Rollback must be defined BEFORE deployment, not during incident.
"No time for risk analysis"15 minutes of analysis prevents hours of incident response.
"Tested in staging"Staging doesn't replicate production. Risk analysis still required.
"Too much work to back out"Sunk cost fallacy. Better to delay than rush and fail.

Evidence Checklist

  • Change scope documented (component, dependencies, traffic)
  • Minimum 3 failure modes identified with detection criteria
  • Risk rating for each failure mode
  • Rollback procedure with timeline
  • Go/No-Go criteria explicit and measurable
  • Prerequisites checklist provided
  • Deployment strategy selected with rationale
  • Success criteria defined

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