Prediction markets

Markets are information. Never say buy, sell or hedge, never size a position, and never help open an account or get around a venue's regional restrictions.

erisk below means python3 <skill-dir>/scripts/erisk.py (${CLAUDE_SKILL_DIR} in Claude Code). Run it from the user's working directory; output goes to ./election-risk-out/. Python 3.10+, standard library only.

The full list (read it, then search as a check)

erisk markets pull            # about 6 minutes the first time each day; then cached

Writes two plain lists, one line per event (venue:event | title | volume | close date | top outcomes):

• election-risk-out/_markets/elections.md: contests decided by the Nov 3 vote (winners, chamber control, ballot measures). Margin, turnout and vote-share side markets are dropped. About 35k tokens: read it whole, in parts if your file reader has a size cap.
• election-risk-out/_markets/house-districts.md: single House districts (they act through House control).
• election-risk-out/_markets/policy.md: markets whose Yes is a policy (bill, tariff, regulator, moratorium, court ruling, government deal).

Each list can be read whole. Read the relevant one in full first: the titles are terse and the same thing is often priced under a name you would not search for. The filter keeps anything that might matter, so off-topic lines get in; skip them.

Then search as a check. The lists come from a keyword filter, and a market it misses is invisible. For each issue you are looking for, run erisk markets search with its one or two plainest words (USMCA, "data center", "minimum wage", a company or agency name). Search covers every open market on both venues, unfiltered. Add anything it finds that the lists missed.

One market in detail

erisk markets show GOVPARTYGA-26 --venue kalshi                       # prices + rules text
erisk markets show georgia-governor-winner-2026 --venue polymarket
erisk markets search "data center" --prices                           # keyword search, both venues

rules in the show output is one string when every outcome shares the same text, and an object keyed by outcome ticker (or Polymarket slug) when they differ, as in most races.

Read the rules before using a market. It counts only if its resolution text matches the question: what exactly resolves Yes, by when, and who decides. Similar titles often differ. Details, venue quirks and how prices are computed: references/markets.md.

Answer format

Price = bid/ask midpoint, "thin" under 10,000 contracts (Kalshi) or $10,000 traded (Polymarket). Give both venues when both list it. Say when the prices were pulled. If a venue could not be reached (Polymarket returns HTTP 451 in some countries), say so and finish with the other.