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prediction-market-arbitrage-zh

Skill0 starsChanged 7 months agoMITView on GitHub

通过 AIsa API 发现 Polymarket 和 Kalshi 预测市场的套利机会。扫描体育市场跨平台价差、比较实时赔率、验证订单簿流动性。适用场景：预测市场套利、跨平台价差、体育博彩套利、赔率对比、无风险利润、市场低效。 Use when: the user needs market data, stock analysis, watchlists, or portfolio workflows.

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SKILL.md

预测市场套利

通过 AIsa API 发现 Polymarket 和 Kalshi 之间的套利机会。

配置

export AISA_API_KEY="your-key"

在 aisa.one 获取 Key（$0.01/次查询，按量付费）。

工作流程

发现套利机会的步骤：

  1. 扫描匹配市场（scan 批量扫描，match 分析特定市场）
  2. 查看价差 — 工具自动计算跨平台价格差异
  3. 验证流动性 — 用 prediction_market_client.py orderbooks 检查订单簿深度后再行动

快速示例

扫描某项运动的套利机会

# 扫描指定日期所有 NBA 市场 — 自动显示价差
python3 scripts/arbitrage_finder.py scan nba --date 2025-04-01

分析特定市场

# 通过 Polymarket slug
python3 scripts/arbitrage_finder.py match --polymarket-slug <slug>

# 通过 Kalshi ticker
python3 scripts/arbitrage_finder.py match --kalshi-ticker <ticker>

行动前验证流动性

# 检查两边的订单簿深度
python3 scripts/prediction_market_client.py polymarket orderbooks --token-id <id>
python3 scripts/prediction_market_client.py kalshi orderbooks --ticker <ticker>

命令参考

arbitrage_finder.py — 自动检测

python3 scripts/arbitrage_finder.py scan <运动类型> --date <YYYY-MM-DD> [--min-spread <百分比>] [--min-liquidity <美元>] [--json]
python3 scripts/arbitrage_finder.py match --polymarket-slug <slug> [--min-spread <百分比>] [--min-liquidity <美元>] [--json]
python3 scripts/arbitrage_finder.py match --kalshi-ticker <ticker> [--min-spread <百分比>] [--min-liquidity <美元>] [--json]

支持：nba、nfl、mlb、nhl、soccer、tennis。

prediction_market_client.py — 原始市场数据

用于手动价格检查和深入分析。

# 搜索市场
python3 scripts/prediction_market_client.py polymarket markets --search <关键词> --status open --limit 5
python3 scripts/prediction_market_client.py kalshi markets --search <关键词> --status open --limit 5

# 获取价格（使用 markets 输出中的 token_id / market_ticker）
python3 scripts/prediction_market_client.py polymarket price <token_id>
python3 scripts/prediction_market_client.py kalshi price <market_ticker>

# 跨平台体育市场匹配
python3 scripts/prediction_market_client.py sports by-date <运动类型> --date <YYYY-MM-DD>
python3 scripts/prediction_market_client.py sports matching (--polymarket-slug <slug> | --kalshi-ticker <ticker>)

# 订单簿深度
python3 scripts/prediction_market_client.py polymarket orderbooks --token-id <id>
python3 scripts/prediction_market_client.py kalshi orderbooks --ticker <ticker>

理解套利

当不同平台上所有互斥结果的合计成本低于 1.0 时，套利机会存在：

Polymarket 上 "Yes" 价格 0.40 + Kalshi 上 "No" 价格 0.55 = 成本 0.95，保证回报 1.00 → 5.3% 利润。

务必验证订单簿深度 — 没有流动性的价差无法执行。

安全与权限

需要： AISA_API_KEY 环境变量。

所有操作均为只读，通过 HTTPS GET 请求 api.aisa.one。套利价差在本地计算。不执行交易、不连接钱包、除 API Key 外不发送个人数据。每个响应包含 usage.cost 和 usage.credits_remaining。

完整文档：AIsa API 参考。

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