Risk Calculator

Output Format

POSITION RISK REPORT
--------------------------------------------------
Instrument:           [ticker or asset]
Side:                 [LONG or SHORT]
Account:              $[account]
Risk model:           [Fixed % / Kelly / Half-Kelly / ATR]
Risk %:               [risk%]
Dollar risk:          $[dollar risk]
Entry:                $[entry]
Stop:                 $[stop]
Stop distance:        $[stop distance] ([stop %])
Position size:        [units]
Position value:       $[position value]
Open portfolio risk:  $[existing open risk]
Post-trade risk:      $[existing + new risk] ([% of account])

MATH
Dollar Risk     = [account] x [risk%] = [dollar risk]
Stop Distance   = abs([entry] - [stop]) = [stop distance]
Position Size   = floor([dollar risk] / [stop distance]) = [units]
Position Value  = [units] x [entry] = [position value]
Post-Trade Risk = [existing open risk] + [dollar risk] = [post-trade risk]

R TARGETS
1R target:           $[price] -> [PnL]
2R target:           $[price] -> [PnL]
3R target:           $[price] -> [PnL]

VOLATILITY MODEL
ATR:                 [atr or n/a]
ATR multiple:        [multiplier or n/a]
ATR stop distance:   $[atr x multiplier or n/a]
ATR position size:   [units or n/a]

KELLY MODEL
Win rate W:          [value or n/a]
Reward/Risk R:       [value or n/a]
Kelly %:             [W - ((1 - W) / R)]
Half-Kelly %:        [Kelly / 2]
Execution note:      [Use Half-Kelly / No positive edge]

LEVERAGE
Gross leverage:      [position value / account]x
Requested leverage:  [value or 1.00x]
Initial margin used: $[position value / leverage]
Maintenance margin:  [maintenance margin % or n/a]
Margin call est.:    $[price or n/a]

FLAGS
Flag                 Status   Trigger
OVERSIZED            [Y/N]    [reason]
HIGH RISK            [Y/N]    [reason]
STOP TOO TIGHT       [Y/N]    [reason]
STOP TOO WIDE        [Y/N]    [reason]
CONCENTRATION RISK   [Y/N]    [reason]

STOP SOLVER
Given units:         [units or n/a]
Risk per unit:       $[dollar risk / units or n/a]
Max long stop:       $[entry - risk per unit or n/a]
Max short stop:      $[entry + risk per unit or n/a]

VERDICT
[SAFE / ADJUST / REJECT]
Reason: [single clear sentence]

Core Formulas

FIXED % RISK
Dollar Risk        = Account x Risk%
Stop Distance      = abs(Entry - Stop)
Position Size      = floor(Dollar Risk / Stop Distance)
Position Value     = Position Size x Entry

R TARGETS
Long 1R target     = Entry + Stop Distance
Long 2R target     = Entry + (2 x Stop Distance)
Long 3R target     = Entry + (3 x Stop Distance)
Short 1R target    = Entry - Stop Distance
Short 2R target    = Entry - (2 x Stop Distance)
Short 3R target    = Entry - (3 x Stop Distance)

KELLY CRITERION
Kelly %            = W - ((1 - W) / R)
Where:
W                  = win rate as decimal
R                  = average win / average loss
Half-Kelly         = Kelly % / 2

ATR VOLATILITY SIZING
ATR Stop Distance  = ATR x Stop Multiplier
ATR Position Size  = floor(Dollar Risk / ATR Stop Distance)

STOP SOLVER
Risk Per Unit      = Dollar Risk / Units
Long Max Stop      = Entry - Risk Per Unit
Short Max Stop     = Entry + Risk Per Unit

LEVERAGE + MARGIN
Gross Leverage     = Position Value / Account
Initial Margin     = Position Value / Leverage
Adverse Move %     = (1 / Leverage) - Maintenance Margin%
Long Call Est.     = Entry x (1 - Adverse Move %)
Short Call Est.    = Entry x (1 + Adverse Move %)

PORTFOLIO RISK
Post-Trade Risk    = Existing Open Risk + Dollar Risk
Post-Trade Risk %  = Post-Trade Risk / Account

Risk Flags

RISK FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------
OVERSIZED           Position Value > 25% of account
HIGH RISK           Risk per trade > 2% of account
STOP TOO TIGHT      Stop distance < max(0.50% of entry, 0.50 x ATR if ATR exists)
STOP TOO WIDE       Stop distance > min(15.00% of entry, 3.00 x ATR if ATR exists)
CONCENTRATION RISK  Single position > 30% of account
                    OR post-trade open portfolio risk > 6%

RULES

• Always show the full math block. Never give only the final share count.
• If the stop equals the entry, reject the trade sizing because stop distance is zero.
• Use fixed percentage risk sizing by default unless the user explicitly provides Kelly inputs or ATR inputs.
• When Kelly inputs are present, show both Kelly and Half-Kelly; prefer Half-Kelly for execution unless the user explicitly asks for full Kelly.
• If Kelly is zero or negative, say there is no positive edge and do not force a size from Kelly.
• When ATR is present, compute ATR sizing alongside fixed percentage sizing and call out the difference.
• If the user gives account, entry, risk, and units but no stop, solve the maximum stop from Risk Per Unit = Dollar Risk / Units.
• If leverage is mentioned, calculate gross leverage, initial margin used, and margin call estimate only when leverage and maintenance margin are available; if maintenance margin is missing, state that the estimate requires it.
• Flag HIGH RISK above 2% account risk even if the math works.
• Flag OVERSIZED and CONCENTRATION RISK separately; a trade can be one, both, or neither.
• Use SAFE only when no flags are triggered and post-trade portfolio risk stays at or below 6% of account.
• If existing open risk is provided, show the post-trade portfolio risk math explicitly in the MATH block and verdict.
• Round displayed currency to 2 decimals and position size down to whole units unless the asset supports fractional sizing.

EXAMPLE TRIGGER PHRASES

• "how many shares can I buy with a $25k account and 1% risk?"
• "size this trade: entry 84.50 stop 81.90 account 12000"
• "what's my risk if I buy 200 shares at 42 with a stop at 39?"
• "position sizing for a BTC long with 3x leverage"
• "calculate my stop if I only want to risk $150"
• "show ATR sizing for this setup"
• "how much margin will this use and where is the margin call?"

Response Procedure

1. Parse account, side, entry, stop, units, and risk%.
2. Compute fixed-risk size first.
3. If stop is missing but units are present, solve the max stop.
4. Add ATR model if ATR data exists.
5. Add Kelly and Half-Kelly if win-rate data exists.
6. Evaluate all five risk flags.
7. Output verdict: SAFE, ADJUST, or REJECT.

This skill is part of the NOUMENON Trading Skills Pack — gumroad.com/noumenon-ai