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JakeschincariolJakeschincariol/closer-skill/forecaster/SKILL.md

forecaster

Skill33 starsChanged 11 days agoMITView on GitHub

Forecaster. Tells you what you'll close this month. Reads every open deal on the board with its stage, value and close date and gives three numbers: commit (contracts out), likely (each deal weighted by the chance for its stage) and best case, deal by deal, plus what you have already won. Shows your real win rate and how long deals take once you have history, and flags what makes the forecast wrong: past close dates, deals with no close date, deals gone quiet. Use when the user says "forecast", "what will I close this month", "how's the month looking", "revenue projection", "win rate", "pipeline value", or at the start of each week.

The file

We split this skill into the rules it gives an agent

5 rules. About 0 are common, 5 are distinctive, and 0 are very specific to this project.

  • ≈0

    Common · estimate

    Many files like this have a rule of this kind.

  • ≈5

    Distinctive · estimate

    This author's own choices. Worth a look.

  • 0

    Very specific

    Tied to their project's names, files or tools. Probably skip.

  • Common
  • Distinctive
  • Very specific
  1. Distinctive:

    Likely: every open deal closing this month, times the chance for its stage.

    line 31
  2. Distinctive:

    Best case: every open deal closing this month, if every one of them signs.

    line 32
  3. Distinctive:

    Never calls a forecast a promise, and never hides what it is based on.

    line 57
  4. Distinctive:

    Never changes a deal's value or close date by itself: it asks the user.

    line 58
  5. Distinctive:

    Never invent a number, a result, a client or a deadline.

    line 64

≈ “Common” is an estimate: at least 1 in 5 of the 350,495 skill files we read have a rule of the same kind, not the same words. “Very specific” is our guess from the words: it names a file, a command, a setting or the project itself.

Keep what fits and drop the rest. Your version, ready for your agents.
Files
SKILL.md

forecaster

The Forecaster answers the question every owner asks on Monday: how much money is actually coming in this month? It shows its working, so the number can be trusted or argued with.

${CLAUDE_SKILL_DIR} below is this skill's folder (where this SKILL.md lives).

python3 "${CLAUDE_SKILL_DIR}/forecast.py" month --month 2026-11 --today 2026-10-29
python3 "${CLAUDE_SKILL_DIR}/forecast.py" rates
python3 "${CLAUDE_SKILL_DIR}/forecast.py" health --today 2026-10-29

The three numbers

  • Commit: deals at contract-sent with a close date this month. Say this number when someone asks what you will close.
  • Likely: every open deal closing this month, times the chance for its stage.
  • Best case: every open deal closing this month, if every one of them signs.

Stage chances to start with: lead 5%, contacted 10%, replied 20%, call-booked 30%, proposal 50%, contract-sent 80%. Once there are 10 or more closed deals of the user's own, they are scaled to the user's real win rate, and the output says so. An unsubscribe from a cold email is not counted as a lost sale.

Steps, every Monday

  1. /record-keeper sync first, so the board is current.
  2. forecast.py health. Fix what it flags before forecasting: ask the user for a real close date on any deal without one, and move or close deals whose date has passed (/pipeline move).
  3. forecast.py month. Read the three numbers, then the deals that matter most, biggest weighted first.
  4. Say what would move the number: "Juniper's call on Tuesday is worth $1,436 of the likely number; prep it with /researcher."
  5. forecast.py rates once a month: win rate and days to close.

Example from the reel's board

For November 2026, on October 29: Commit $4,788 (Harbor Lane Dental, agreement out). Likely $6,474: Harbor Lane $4,788 x 80%, Juniper Yoga Loft $4,788 x 30%, Bluebird Pet Spa $4,788 x 20%, Pine Street Fitness $2,500 x 10%. Best case $16,864. Based on: standard stage chances (fewer than 10 closed deals of your own). (Illustrative: the board is ../pipeline/pipeline.example.json, every business in it is fictional.)

What it never does

  • Never calls a forecast a promise, and never hides what it is based on.
  • Never changes a deal's value or close date by itself: it asks the user.

Consent and truth

  • Nothing is sent, booked or signed without the user's explicit yes for that exact message, invite or document. This skill only reads the board.
  • Never invent a number, a result, a client or a deadline. Fill in only what is true and ask when something is missing.
  • Forecasts are estimates, not financial advice.

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