XCost Estimate (forward quote)

Skill root: ~/.cursor/skills/xcost-estimate/

You produce a defensible client quote for work that is not yet built. This is not cost-estimate (replacement cost of an existing repo).

Philosophy

1. Quote ≠ rebuild cost. Price the agreed scope, risk, and delivery role — not LOC that does not exist yet.
2. Always give a range. P10 (tight / optimistic) / P50 (recommended) / P90 (padded / pessimistic).
3. Scope is the product. List inclusions, exclusions, and assumptions explicitly. Ambiguity becomes contingency, not silent optimism.
4. Two currencies when relevant. USD primary; add NGN at a stated FX if the buyer is Nigeria-local.
5. Two-sig-figs on money. $12,000 not $12,347.82.
6. Say what role you are pricing. Solo engineer implementing designs vs full product team (PM + design + eng + QA).

When to refuse / redirect

Bundled resources

• references/rate-card.md — hourly bands, complexity tiers, contingency
• references/workstreams.md — common module hour baselines
• assets/quote-template.md — output structure (copy and fill)

Workflow

- [ ] Step 0: Confirm mode = forward quote (not rebuild)
- [ ] Step 1: Ingest scope (PDF / PRD / chat / Figma notes)
- [ ] Step 2: Slice into workstreams + complexity tier
- [ ] Step 3: Estimate hours (P10 / P50 / P90) per workstream
- [ ] Step 4: Pick rate band + apply contingency
- [ ] Step 5: Calendar timeline + payment milestones
- [ ] Step 6: Needs list (client must provide)
- [ ] Step 7: Emit quote via assets/quote-template.md

Step 0 — Mode check

State in one line: "XCost forward quote for [project]. Not a rebuild-cost estimate."

Step 1 — Ingest scope

Extract:

• Problem / users / platforms (web / iOS / Android / admin)
• Must-have features for this bid (MVP / pilot / full)
• Integrations (payments, SMS, maps, KYC, gov APIs)
• Non-functional: offline, low-bandwidth, multilingual, audit logs
• Timeline hints from the deck
• Who supplies design / content / hosting accounts

If a PDF is image-only, convert pages (pdftoppm) and read them. Do not invent features not in the source — mark gaps as assumptions.

Step 2 — Tier + workstreams

Read references/rate-card.md and references/workstreams.md.

Pick one complexity tier for the bid package (not the dream end-state):

Break scope into workstreams (backend, mobile/web, admin, payments, DevOps, QA, etc.). Map each to baselines in workstreams.md, then adjust ± for novelty.

Step 3 — Hours

For each workstream:

hours_P50 = baseline_adjusted
hours_P10 = P50 × 0.75
hours_P90 = P50 × 1.40

Sum → Engineering hours (P10 / P50 / P90).

If design is not supplied by the client, add UX hours (see rate-card). If design is supplied (Figma), add implementation-only UI hours, not discovery design.

Step 4 — Money

Read references/rate-card.md.

fee = hours × blended_rate × (1 + contingency)

• Contingency: T1 10% · T2 15% · T3 20% · T4 25% (apply to P50 for the recommended bid; show raw and contingent).
• Pick a recommended rate with one justification sentence (e.g. solo senior Nigeria remote for ministry-adjacent pilot).
• Also show an alternate band (e.g. US remote) so the user can choose positioning.

Recommended bid = contingent P50. Show P10/P90 as negotiation / risk bounds.

Step 5 — Timeline & milestones

Convert P50 eng hours → calendar using solo efficiency ~70% of a 40h week ≈ 28 focused hrs/week:

calendar_weeks = eng_hours_P50 / 28

Propose 3–4 payment milestones (e.g. 30% start / 40% beta / 20% launch / 10% hypercare).

Respect any deck phase dates only as client aspiration; call out if the bid package is Phase-1-only.

Step 6 — Needs list

Always list what the client / sponsor must provide: Figma or brief, Apple/Play accounts, payment merchant KYC, SMS sender ID, hosting/AWS, domain, legal copy, pilot users, price-regulation data, stakeholder availability.

Step 7 — Emit

Copy assets/quote-template.md structure into the chat response. Optionally write the same markdown to a temp path via:

OUTDIR=$(python3 -c "import tempfile,pathlib,os; p=pathlib.Path(tempfile.gettempdir())/'xcost-estimate'/pathlib.Path(os.getcwd()).name; p.mkdir(parents=True,exist_ok=True); print(p)")

Never write the quote into the git working tree unless the user asks.

Guardrails

• Do not pad silently — put padding in contingency and P90.
• Do not price ops hiring, agent salaries, or ministry change-management as eng fees unless asked (list under Out of scope / client ops).
• If AI-assisted delivery is assumed, say so; do not cut hours below a floor of 0.55× traditional solo estimate without stating the AI-assist assumption.
• Prefer one clear bid package (e.g. "Pilot MVP") plus optional add-ons over a vague "whole vision" number.