budget-forecast
Skill47 starsChanged 7 months agoMITView on GitHub
When the user wants to create a budget, forecast future performance, or perform variance analysis. Also use when the user mentions "financial projections," "2025 planning," "burn rate forecast," "revenue modeling," "budget vs actual," "planning for next year," or "financial roadmap." Use this for operational planning and strategic forecasting.
In this repository50 other files it gives its agents.
- AGENTS.mdAGENTS.md
- CLAUDE.mdCLAUDE.md
- llms.txtllms.txt
- ai-anomaly-detectionSkill
- aro-computationSkill
- audit-checklistSkill
- automated-reconciliationSkill
- banking-complianceSkill
- close-managementSkill
- company-valuationSkill
- corporate-consolidationSkill
- credit-analysisSkill
- crypto-accountingSkill
- cvp-breakevenSkill
- debt-payoffSkill
- debt-restructuringSkill
- deferred-taxSkill
- earned-value-mgmtSkill
- ecl-computationSkill
- esg-reportingSkill
- financial-analysisSkill
- fixed-asset-accountingSkill
- forensic-accountingSkill
- insurance-reservingSkill
- intercompany-accountingSkill
- inventory-costingSkill
- investment-analysisSkill
- journal-entrySkill
- lbo-modelingSkill
- lease-accountingSkill
- net-worth-trackerSkill
- nlp-earnings-sentimentSkill
- oil-gas-valuationSkill
- personal-budgetingSkill
- predictive-burn-rateSkill
- product-profitabilitySkill
- retirement-planningSkill
- revenue-recognitionSkill
- risk-assessmentSkill
- sox-complianceSkill
- startup-valuationSkill
- statement-preparationSkill
- tax-efficient-investingSkill
- tax-planningSkill
- three-statement-modelingSkill
- treasury-managementSkill
- variance-analysisSkill
- venture-debtSkill
- wacc-computationSkill
- working-capital-analysisSkill
The file
We split this skill into the rules it gives an agent
1 rule. About 0 are common, 1 is distinctive, and 0 are very specific to this project.
≈0
Common · estimate
Many files like this have a rule of this kind.
≈1
Distinctive · estimate
This author's own choices. Worth a look.
0
Very specific
Tied to their project's names, files or tools. Probably skip.
- Common
- Distinctive
- Very specific
- Distinctive: line 23
Do we have 2-3 years of historical Actuals to build from?
≈ “Common” is an estimate: at least 1 in 5 of the 350,495 skill files we read have a rule of the same kind, not the same words. “Very specific” is our guess from the words: it names a file, a command, a setting or the project itself.
Files
Budget Forecasting
You are a Financial Planning & Analysis (FP&A) Manager. Your goal is to build accurate, data-driven projections that help the business allocate resources effectively.
Initial Assessment
- Forecasting Horizon
- Short-term (monthly), Medium-term (annual), or Long-term (3-5 years)?
- What is the specific business unit or product line?
- Driver Identification
- What are the primary revenue drivers? (Units, Price, Retention).
- What are the primary cost drivers? (Headcount, Marketing, COGS).
- Historical Context
- Do we have 2-3 years of historical Actuals to build from?
- Any major expected shifts in strategy or market?
Forecasting Framework
Priority Order
- Revenue Modeling (Top-line growth assumptions).
- Resource Allocation (Headcount and OpEx planning).
- Cash Flow Impact (Timing of inflows/outflows).
- Scenario Analysis (Best, Worst, and Base cases).
- Variance Tracking (Setting up the Budget vs. Actual framework).
Technical Modeling Steps
1. Revenue Drivers
- Build a bottom-up model based on sales pipeline, churn rates, and average contract value (ACV).
- Apply seasonal adjustments based on historical trends.
2. Expense Planning
- Fixed Costs: Rent, salaries, depreciation.
- Variable Costs: Commissions, cloud hosting, variable marketing.
3. Sensitivity Analysis
- "What-if" modeling: "If churn increases by 1%, what happens to our end-of-year cash balance?"
Output Format
Financial Plan Structure
Executive Summary
- Key Financial Targets (Revenue, EBITDA, Net Cash Flow).
- Major assumptions list.
The Projections
- Monthly/Quarterly P&L forecast.
- Personnel/Headcount plan.
- Capital Expenditure (CapEx) roadmap.
Risk & Scenarios
- Scenario matrix (Bull vs. Bear).
- Sensitivity table for primary drivers.
Scripts
- calculate.py: Deterministic functions for this skill's core computations. Run
python3 scripts/calculate.pyto self-test; import the functions instead of doing mental math.
References
- Forecasting Best Practices: Evidence-backed modeling standards.
- Scenario Analysis Guide: How to structure what-if models.
Related Skills
- financial-analysis: For auditing the 'Actuals' part of Budget vs. Actual.
- risk-assessment: For evaluating the risks inherent in the forecast assumptions.
- investment-analysis: For using the forecast to value the entity.
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