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aeon-unlock-monitor

Skill17 starsChanged 5 months agoMITView on GitHub

Weekly token unlock tracker ranked by Absorption Ratio (unlock_usd / 7d avg daily volume), not the weak "% of circulating supply" proxy. Per event: cliff vs linear classification, recipient category (team / investor / community / forced), and a one-line market read (priced in / market asleep / fade pump / forced sellers / absorbable). Triggers: "scan upcoming unlocks", "which tokens unlock this week", "supply pressure check", "are unlocks priced in", "FTX/Mt Gox distributions".

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SKILL.md

aeon-unlock-monitor

Empirically (Keyrock's 16k+ unlock analysis), ratios > 2.4× strain liquidity and produce measurable drawdown; < 0.5× the market yawns. The skill ranks by ratio first, supply % second, and adds pre-unlock price action to produce a per-event verdict.

Tiers

ratio = unlock_usd_value / 7d_avg_daily_volume

CRISIS     > 2.4×    liquidity cannot absorb without slippage
STRAIN     1.0-2.4×  multiple sessions to digest
DIGESTIBLE 0.3-1.0×  notable but absorbable
TRIVIAL    < 0.3×    background noise

Recipient override: team/investor (cost-basis-zero sellers) bump up one tier; community/staking-rewards bump down. Court-ordered distributions (FTX, Mt. Gox, Celsius) bypass the tier system — always included, labeled forced.

Market read

ReadCondition
priced inToken down > 20% over 30d AND tier ≤ STRAIN. Selling has happened.
market asleepFlat or up over 30d AND tier ≥ STRAIN. Asymmetric downside.
fade pumpUp > 15% over 30d AND tier = CRISIS. Pre-cliff bid-and-dump.
forced sellersCourt-ordered. Legal timeline, not market-driven.
absorbableTRIVIAL/DIGESTIBLE with no recipient flag.

Sources

Tokenomist (primary), DefiLlama unlocks, CryptoRank, DropsTab, CoinGecko for volume + 30d price. Source status emitted in output — DEGRADED if 2+ fail, ERROR only if all fail.

Output

Headline = most-leveraged unlock with its market read. Then tiered groups: CRISIS → STRAIN → DIGESTIBLE → FORCED. Quiet week ships UNLOCK_MONITOR_QUIET with one sentence — supply being calm is itself a signal.

A local state/unlock-monitor-seen.json holds ${ticker}:${unlock_date} keys on a 90-day window for dedup.

Rules

  • Cliff pattern: weakness ~30d prior, vol peak on the date, recovery 10-14 days after. Note explicitly.
  • Linear unlocks rarely produce single-day shocks. Say so when one shows up high.
  • Be direct. "priced in", "market's asleep", "fade the pump". No hedging.

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