Profitability Analysis

Connector capability gate

When a conclusion depends on live MCP/API/connector data, load ../../references/connector-capability.md before interpreting missing or empty fields. If a machine-readable capability snapshot is available, identify the exact required capability IDs and run ../../scripts/evaluate_connector_capability_gate.py before metric interpretation.

• Pass — continue with the Skill's normal evidence, sufficiency, lineage and safety checks.
• Degraded — do not make a high-confidence dependent recommendation; keep the result to Directional, Hold, Alternate Source, Missing Data, or Manual Review.
• Blocked — do not treat the dependent observation as action-safe until the capability is resolved or an allowed alternate source is verified.
• missing_evidence_policy = never_zero — Partial, Unsupported, Unknown, or absent connector capability is never a numeric zero, unchanged state, or proof that the platform lacks the feature.

This gate is read-only and does not authorize live Amazon Ads mutation.

Campaign objective gate

Load ../../references/campaign-objective.md before treating ACOS/TACOS as a success/failure label for a campaign. Profitability calculations remain valid economic evidence, but their decision meaning depends on the campaign objective.

• Profit: break-even and target economics may be primary decision criteria.
• Discovery: economics are guardrails around learning cost, not proof of failure from one short exploration window.
• Growth: quantify the cost of growth and marginal economics; organic/rank movement alone is not proof of incrementality.
• Defense: expose strategic-coverage, cannibalization and opportunity-cost questions rather than assuming all defended spend is incremental.
• Experiment: preserve the declared experimental metric and treatment integrity.
• Unknown: report economics without inventing the intended trade-off.

There is no universal ACOS/TACOS target shared by all campaign objectives.

什么时候使用

• 用户问“ACOS 多少才不亏”；
• 想设 Target ACOS；
• 想知道哪些 ASIN/campaign 真正赚钱；
• 想判断高 ACOS 是否仍可接受；
• 想做利润最大化而不是销售额最大化。

Routing boundary

本 Skill 负责 economic eligibility：回答当前广告在给定成本口径下是否盈利、接近盈亏平衡、亏损，或在明确战略目标下可以承受怎样的效率区间。

Economic eligibility is not the same as growth qualification. 一个实体历史上盈利或 ACOS 低于 break-even，只能说明当前/历史经济性具备一定承受空间，不能证明存在 additional demand headroom、incrementality 或正确的 binding control。

当用户问“该不该加预算 / 加 bid / 扩 Placement / 哪些赢家值得更多投资 / 哪里可以继续放量”时：

1. 本 Skill 提供 break-even、contribution margin、profit-after-ads 等经济输入；
2. 将增长资格交给 ../growth-opportunity-finder/SKILL.md；
3. 由 growth Skill 再核对 marginal headroom、retail readiness、incrementality/cannibalization、attribution quality 和 binding control；
4. 具体 bid/budget/placement 幅度再交给对应控制 Skill 与 ../../references/action-sizing.md。

因此“盈利”不是“扩量授权”。

所需数据

最低利润模型需要：

• revenue/sales；
• ad spend；
• product cost；
• Amazon referral fee；
• fulfillment/FBA cost。

推荐增加：

• coupons/discounts；
• returns/refunds；
• storage/inbound/other variable costs；
• 总销售额（用于 TACOS）；
• VAT/tax 处理口径（若业务需要）。

缺少成本时必须明确：只能做广告效率分析，不能声称“盈利/亏损”。

Currency comparability gate

Before any monetary arithmetic across Ads reports, retail/fee exports, cost systems, marketplaces, profiles, or historical windows, inspect the available currency lineage for every monetary input. At minimum reconcile native_currency, reporting_currency, and currency_conversion_status; preserve conversion_timing and exchange_rate_provenance when available.

• A shared displayed/reporting currency is not proof that inputs share the same native currency or FX treatment.
• currency_conversion_status = unknown, missing lineage, conflicting native/reporting currencies, or unreconciled conversion timing/provenance must never be treated as native, equal, or zero FX difference.
• Do not invent, backfill, or independently calculate an exchange rate inside this Skill. Use only source-provided or otherwise explicitly verified conversion evidence.
• If all monetary inputs are verified to share a comparable currency treatment, continue with the normal calculations below.
• If currency treatment cannot be reconciled, classify monetary profitability as Not Comparable (or Missing Data when the required lineage itself is unavailable). Do not compute or claim contribution_before_ads, break-even ACOS, profit_after_ads, profit margin after ads, or cross-market monetary deltas from those unreconciled inputs.
• A Directional observation may describe non-monetary or already comparable evidence, but it must not present unreconciled profit-after-ads or break-even ACOS as a numeric economic result.

For structured optimization output, preserve this decision in economic_eligibility with a non-empty reason. Use Eligible only when the monetary inputs are verified comparable; use Directional only for evidence that remains legitimately directional without claiming unreconciled monetary profitability. If economic eligibility is Not Comparable or Missing Data, do not emit an action proposal from this Skill; return the blocked economic assessment and the evidence needed to resolve it instead.

This is a measurement-comparability gate, not an FX engine and not authorization to mutate Amazon Ads.

计算

精确定义参考 ../../references/amazon-ads-metrics.md。

Contribution before ads

revenue - product_cost - amazon_fees - fulfillment - discounts - returns_cost - other_variable_costs

Break-even ACOS

contribution_before_ads / revenue

Profit after ads

contribution_before_ads - ad_spend

TACOS

仅当 total sales 已提供：

ad_spend / total_sales

分析层级

按可用数据分析：

• ASIN；
• campaign；
• ad group；
• keyword/target；
• search term。

不要把 SKU/ASIN 不同毛利的流量混在一起用统一 break-even ACOS 判断，除非用户明确接受近似。

Search Term 级利润视图仍受 Search Term report 的 row eligibility / origin / attribution 范围约束；利润计算不会把缺失或未表示的 row 自动补成 0，也不会把 displayed string 自动解释成 literal shopper query。

决策逻辑

ACOS < break-even ACOS

通常仍有正贡献，但这只建立经济性资格，不是 growth headroom 证明。是否增加投资还要交给增长审查，并至少考虑：

• inventory / retail readiness；
• marginal CPC/CVR，而不是只看历史平均 CPC/CVR；
• additional demand / marginal headroom；
• incrementality 与 cannibalization；
• 实际 binding control 是 budget、bid、placement、coverage 还是其它约束；
• 目标利润率；
• 自然销量和 TACOS；
• 新品/排名/防御战略。

ACOS 接近 break-even

视目标而定。新品、排名、NTB 可接受接近或短期高于 break-even，但要明确这是战略投资，不应表述为“盈利”，也不应仅凭战略标签自动判定增长动作安全。

ACOS > break-even

先判断是否：

• 暂时大促/价格变化；
• 归因延迟；
• 新品探索；
• 有长期品牌/自然排名价值。

否则优先提出止损和结构优化。若业务明确接受战略性亏损，必须把战略例外与普通盈利流量分开标注。

输出格式

Profitability snapshot

• Revenue
• Contribution before ads
• Break-even ACOS
• Actual ACOS
• Profit after ads
• Profit margin after ads
• TACOS（如可用）

Entity ranking

按利润贡献而非销售额排序，标记：

• Profitable — growth review required — 当前经济性为正；如用户要扩量，继续交给 growth-opportunity-finder；
• Profitable but constrained — 当前经济性为正，但已知库存、战略、结构或其它约束使增长动作暂不可用；
• Near break-even；
• Loss-making；
• Unknown due to missing cost data。

不要在 profitability-analysis 内使用 scalable 作为最终认证标签；只有 growth qualification 完成后才讨论 Action-safe scale。

Recommended actions

利润 Skill 的动作主要是：

• 调整/校准目标经济边界；
• 标记亏损或接近盈亏平衡实体；
• 为 bid/budget/growth 分析提供可审计的 break-even / contribution inputs；
• 将真正的 scale decision 路由给 growth-opportunity-finder。

每项提供数字证据、成本假设、confidence、validation window。若建议需要增加投资，输出 route_to_growth_opportunity_finder，而不是直接从历史利润推出加预算/加 bid。

保护

• 不要建议为了降低 ACOS 而盲目砍掉能带来高贡献利润的规模。目标是业务利润，不是让 ACOS 数字看起来更漂亮。
• 同样，不要因为当前利润为正就假定下一单位流量仍以相同 CPC/CVR/订单结构获取；historical average profitability ≠ marginal profitability。
• Profitability qualification ≠ headroom ≠ incrementality ≠ binding control。增长动作需要对应 specialist 的额外证据门。