Parameter Definition

Define specific, measurable triggers that would change a theory's truth value. These are set BEFORE entering a position, not after you're already emotional about it.

Input

Gabriel provides:

• Ticker (required): e.g., NVDA
• Theory card MUST exist at investing/theories/TICKER.md — run /theory first if it doesn't

Process

1. Read the theory card from investing/theories/TICKER.md
   • If no theory card exists: tell Gabriel to run /theory TICKER first
   • The parameters MUST be specific to THIS theory, not generic
   • Read the pre-mortem section — extract "Suggested New Parameters" and "Gap" assessments. These are failure modes the pre-mortem identified that may not have corresponding parameters yet. Include them in the trigger proposal set.
   • Read the Fermi Decomposition sensitivity — the most sensitive Fermi component should have the MOST and TIGHTEST parameters watching it
2. Run all 4 trigger analysis sub-skills — each in this skill's directory:
   • fundamental-triggers.md — earnings/financial triggers
   • technical-triggers.md — price/chart triggers
   • competitive-triggers.md — market position triggers
   • macro-triggers.md — external environment triggers
3. Each sub-skill proposes specific triggers with:
   • The trigger condition (specific and measurable)
   • Current value of the metric
   • Threshold that would trigger reassessment
   • Severity: MINOR / MAJOR / EXIT
   • Whether it's theory-specific or generic
4. FMEA score each trigger (fmea-scoring.md):
   • Rate Severity (1-10), Occurrence (1-10), Detection (1-10)
   • Calculate RPN = S × O × D
   • High-D triggers (hard to detect) get special attention — find leading indicators
5. Present all proposed triggers organized by type with RPN scores
6. Run Defense Independence Audit (defense-independence.md):
   • Check if parameters are in independent clusters or correlated
   • Grade: A (>80% independence) through D (<40%)
   • If clustered: consolidate redundant triggers, add triggers from underrepresented categories
7. Ask Gabriel which triggers to activate
8. Write chosen parameters to the theory card

Severity Levels

• MINOR — re-run the relevant theory lens, probably hold. Something to watch.
  • Example: RSI hits 75, approaching overbought
• MAJOR — re-run full theory analysis, position at risk. Something changed.
  • Example: earnings miss consensus by 15%
• EXIT — theory is broken, sizing should go to zero. Get out.
  • Example: competitor achieves technological parity, destroying the moat thesis

Output Format

## Proposed Parameters for [TICKER]
Theory: "[theory statement]"

### Fundamental Triggers
| # | Trigger | Current | Threshold | Severity | Theory-Specific? |
|---|---------|---------|-----------|----------|-----------------|
| F1 | QoQ revenue growth | 80% | <15% | MAJOR | Yes — growth thesis |
| F2 | Gross margin | 75% | <65% | MAJOR | Yes — monopoly pricing |
| F3 | Earnings miss | - | >10% miss | MINOR | No — generic |

### Technical Triggers
[same format]

### Competitive Triggers
[same format]

### Macro Triggers
[same format]

Then: "which of these do you want active? you can pick all, or just the ones that matter most. i'd recommend at minimum [X, Y, Z]."

Rules

• Parameters MUST be specific and measurable — "if X crosses Y" not "if things get bad"
• Always fetch CURRENT values via WebSearch to set realistic thresholds
• Distinguish between theory-specific and generic parameters
• Don't overwhelm — recommend a focused set of 6-10 key parameters
• NEVER make up current values — if WebSearch fails, say so
• Gen z tone, rigorous analysis