backtest-review
Skill2 starsChanged 7 months agoMITView on GitHub
Audit a trading-strategy backtest for look-ahead bias, overfitting, unrealistic assumptions, and regime-dependence. Use this skill when reviewing backtest code, backtest results, equity curves, or considering whether to deploy a strategy live.
2 other projects use a version of this.
Adopted by
Most recently taken up by
- JerryLiu369/awesome-quant-skillstheir own version, first seen Nov 1, 2026
- saksham10arora-dotcom/quant-skillstheir own version, first seen Oct 13, 2026
Other versions2 projects use a version of this.
Word for word · 0
None found.
Edited · 0
None found.
Wrote their own version · 2
- JerryLiu369/awesome-quant-skills★ 3same name
- saksham10arora-dotcom/quant-skills★ 0same name
How matches are found. Word for word: the exact same text. Edited: shares passages with this file (“99% same” means 99% of its five-word phrases also appear here; 10% or more counts). Their own version: similar meaning, or, weakest, the same name. We can’t tell which project had it first. Projects are counted among the 200 most-starred candidates, and mentions are links to the repository we found, up to 50 per site, so both counts are a floor.
In this repository5 other files it gives its agents.
- data-scrubSkill
- hedge-labSkill
- indicator-designSkill
- risk-reportSkill
- strategy-critiqueSkill
The file
We split this skill into the rules it gives an agent
4 rules. About 0 are common, 4 are distinctive, and 0 are very specific to this project.
≈0
Common · estimate
Many files like this have a rule of this kind.
≈4
Distinctive · estimate
This author's own choices. Worth a look.
0
Very specific
Tied to their project's names, files or tools. Probably skip.
- Common
- Distinctive
- Very specific
- Distinctive: line 19
Must use a point-in-time universe — symbols alive on each decision date.
- Distinctive: line 34
Run on 2018 (crash), 2020-21 (bull), 2022-23 (chop + crash), 2024-25 (bull) separately.
- Distinctive: line 51
If FAIL: concrete fix
- Distinctive: line 58
Never rubber-stamp. If something is unclear, ask for the specific file / data you need to check.
≈ “Common” is an estimate: at least 1 in 5 of the 350,495 skill files we read have a rule of the same kind, not the same words. “Very specific” is our guess from the words: it names a file, a command, a setting or the project itself.
Files
Backtest Review Skill
You are acting as a rigorous quant risk reviewer. Your job is to find reasons the backtest results will NOT translate to live performance.
Checklist — walk through each in order
1. Look-ahead bias
- Does the strategy use any data that would not have been available at decision time?
- Common offenders:
df['close'].shift(-1), rolling windows computed on the full series, normalized features computed before train/test split. - Any indicator using
.mean(),.std(),.min(),.max()on the full series = leak.
2. Survivorship bias
- Is the symbol universe the CURRENT set of tokens/stocks? That's a leak.
- Must use a point-in-time universe — symbols alive on each decision date.
3. Overfitting signals
- Parameter count vs. in-sample bars. Rule of thumb: >1 parameter per ~1000 samples = red flag.
- Any parameter grid-searched on the full dataset without walk-forward? Discard the results.
- Performance drop-off from in-sample to out-of-sample > 40%? Likely overfit.
4. Transaction cost realism
- Fees modeled? Slippage? Funding rates (for perpetual futures)?
- BTC spot: ~10bps round-trip realistic. Perps: fees + funding can eat 30%+ of returns on high-turnover strategies.
- Maker/taker distinction reflected?
5. Regime dependence
- Backtest period: bull / bear / chop split?
- Equity curve: smooth upward OR ratchet in one regime then flat?
- Run on 2018 (crash), 2020-21 (bull), 2022-23 (chop + crash), 2024-25 (bull) separately.
6. Position sizing & risk
- Fixed fractional or fixed notional? Rebalance frequency?
- Max drawdown realistic given leverage and position sizing?
- Kelly fraction < 0.25? >1x = gambling.
7. Execution realism
- Orders at the bar close? Next-bar open more honest.
- Partial fills modeled?
- Liquidity check — is size > top-of-book?
Output format
For each checkpoint, report:
- PASS / FAIL / UNCLEAR
- One-sentence finding
- If FAIL: concrete fix
End with a verdict:
- SHIP — backtest is sound, all checks pass
- FIX — specific issues, not ready for live
- SCRAP — fundamentally flawed, start over
Never rubber-stamp. If something is unclear, ask for the specific file / data you need to check.
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