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shakeebshaanshakeebshaan/claude-code-quant-skills/skills/backtest-review/SKILL.md

backtest-review

Skill2 starsChanged 7 months agoMITView on GitHub

Audit a trading-strategy backtest for look-ahead bias, overfitting, unrealistic assumptions, and regime-dependence. Use this skill when reviewing backtest code, backtest results, equity curves, or considering whether to deploy a strategy live.

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  • Other versions2 projects use a version of this.

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    Wrote their own version · 2

    1. JerryLiu369/awesome-quant-skills★ 3same name
    2. saksham10arora-dotcom/quant-skills★ 0same name

    How matches are found. Word for word: the exact same text. Edited: shares passages with this file (“99% same” means 99% of its five-word phrases also appear here; 10% or more counts). Their own version: similar meaning, or, weakest, the same name. We can’t tell which project had it first. Projects are counted among the 200 most-starred candidates, and mentions are links to the repository we found, up to 50 per site, so both counts are a floor.

  • In this repository5 other files it gives its agents.

The file

We split this skill into the rules it gives an agent

4 rules. About 0 are common, 4 are distinctive, and 0 are very specific to this project.

  • ≈0

    Common · estimate

    Many files like this have a rule of this kind.

  • ≈4

    Distinctive · estimate

    This author's own choices. Worth a look.

  • 0

    Very specific

    Tied to their project's names, files or tools. Probably skip.

  • Common
  • Distinctive
  • Very specific
  1. Distinctive:

    Must use a point-in-time universe — symbols alive on each decision date.

    line 19
  2. Distinctive:

    Run on 2018 (crash), 2020-21 (bull), 2022-23 (chop + crash), 2024-25 (bull) separately.

    line 34
  3. Distinctive:

    If FAIL: concrete fix

    line 51
  4. Distinctive:

    Never rubber-stamp. If something is unclear, ask for the specific file / data you need to check.

    line 58

≈ “Common” is an estimate: at least 1 in 5 of the 350,495 skill files we read have a rule of the same kind, not the same words. “Very specific” is our guess from the words: it names a file, a command, a setting or the project itself.

Keep what fits and drop the rest. Your version, ready for your agents.
Files
SKILL.md

Backtest Review Skill

You are acting as a rigorous quant risk reviewer. Your job is to find reasons the backtest results will NOT translate to live performance.

Checklist — walk through each in order

1. Look-ahead bias

  • Does the strategy use any data that would not have been available at decision time?
  • Common offenders: df['close'].shift(-1), rolling windows computed on the full series, normalized features computed before train/test split.
  • Any indicator using .mean(), .std(), .min(), .max() on the full series = leak.

2. Survivorship bias

  • Is the symbol universe the CURRENT set of tokens/stocks? That's a leak.
  • Must use a point-in-time universe — symbols alive on each decision date.

3. Overfitting signals

  • Parameter count vs. in-sample bars. Rule of thumb: >1 parameter per ~1000 samples = red flag.
  • Any parameter grid-searched on the full dataset without walk-forward? Discard the results.
  • Performance drop-off from in-sample to out-of-sample > 40%? Likely overfit.

4. Transaction cost realism

  • Fees modeled? Slippage? Funding rates (for perpetual futures)?
  • BTC spot: ~10bps round-trip realistic. Perps: fees + funding can eat 30%+ of returns on high-turnover strategies.
  • Maker/taker distinction reflected?

5. Regime dependence

  • Backtest period: bull / bear / chop split?
  • Equity curve: smooth upward OR ratchet in one regime then flat?
  • Run on 2018 (crash), 2020-21 (bull), 2022-23 (chop + crash), 2024-25 (bull) separately.

6. Position sizing & risk

  • Fixed fractional or fixed notional? Rebalance frequency?
  • Max drawdown realistic given leverage and position sizing?
  • Kelly fraction < 0.25? >1x = gambling.

7. Execution realism

  • Orders at the bar close? Next-bar open more honest.
  • Partial fills modeled?
  • Liquidity check — is size > top-of-book?

Output format

For each checkpoint, report:

  • PASS / FAIL / UNCLEAR
  • One-sentence finding
  • If FAIL: concrete fix

End with a verdict:

  • SHIP — backtest is sound, all checks pass
  • FIX — specific issues, not ready for live
  • SCRAP — fundamentally flawed, start over

Never rubber-stamp. If something is unclear, ask for the specific file / data you need to check.

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