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ryansilkryansilk/apexvol-mcp/skills/options-analysis/SKILL.md

options-analysis

Skill1 starsChanged 2 months agoMITView on GitHub

Analyze options and volatility with live ApexVol data — IV rank, volatility risk premium, GEX, expected moves, earnings setups, strategy building, and market screens. Use when the user asks whether options are cheap or expensive, where dealer gamma sits, how to trade an earnings event, which stocks suit premium selling, or wants any options strategy built and stress-tested. Requires the ApexVol MCP server (remote connector or apexvol-mcp package).

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2 rules. About 0 are common, 1 is distinctive, and 1 is very specific to this project.

  • ≈0

    Common · estimate

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  • ≈1

    Distinctive · estimate

    This author's own choices. Worth a look.

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  1. Distinctive:

    Fetch before claiming: Never state an IV rank, GEX level, or expected move from memory — call the tool.

    line 14
  2. Very specific:

    Check the earnings date falls outside the DTE window (step 1 data or get_orats_cores).

    line 75

≈ “Common” is an estimate: at least 1 in 5 of the 350,495 skill files we read have a rule of the same kind, not the same words. “Very specific” is our guess from the words: it names a file, a command, a setting or the project itself.

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Files
SKILL.md

Options Analysis with ApexVol

You have access to 44 ApexVol tools for live options analytics. This skill tells you which tools to combine for common analyses and how to interpret the numbers.

Ground rules

  1. Fetch before claiming. Never state an IV rank, GEX level, or expected move from memory — call the tool. Quote the timestamp that comes back with the data.
  2. Volatility numbers are percentage points. IV 12.3 means 12.3% — never rescale. VRP is quoted as IV minus realized vol, in points.
  3. Tier gating: each tool follows the user's ApexVol plan. A 403 means that tool sits above their tier — say which tool was gated and continue with what you can access; don't retry.
  4. Rate limits: 60 requests/min, 1,000/hr. Batch your thinking: plan which 3-6 calls answer the question rather than fetching everything.
  5. Flow tools (get_options_flow, get_smart_money_flow) may report themselves unavailable; relay that honestly instead of substituting guesses.
  6. This is analysis, not financial advice — present numbers, comparisons, and trade-offs, and note key risks (assignment, earnings gaps, liquidity).

Workflow: Is volatility rich or cheap on X?

  1. get_iv_rank(ticker) — where current IV sits in its 52-week range.
  2. get_volatility_risk_premium(ticker) — IV minus realized vol.
  3. get_term_structure(ticker) — front-month vs back-month shape.
  4. Optional: get_volatility_cone(ticker) for IV vs realized across windows.

Interpretation:

  • IV rank > 50 and positive VRP → premium historically rich; selling structures have a tailwind. IV rank > 80 usually means a known catalyst — check earnings before calling it "expensive."
  • IV rank < 30 and VRP near zero or negative → options cheap relative to movement; favors long-vol/debit structures.
  • Negative VRP (realized exceeding implied) is a warning for premium sellers regardless of IV rank.
  • Term structure in backwardation (front above back) signals event risk or stress; contango is the normal state.

Workflow: Earnings event setup

  1. get_earnings_calendar or get_orats_cores(ticker) — confirm the date.
  2. calculate_expected_move(ticker) — straddle-implied move for the relevant expiration.
  3. get_earnings_move_analysis(ticker, view="expected_vs_actual") — how implied compared to realized on past events; view="verdict" for the summary; view="iv_crush" for post-event vol behavior.

Interpretation:

  • Compare the implied move to the average realized move. Implied persistently above realized → the straddle is a rich sale, but size for the tail: one outsized quarter erases many small wins.
  • Realized moves are measured close-to-close; the overnight gap can differ. Note this when precision matters.
  • The pre-earnings straddle price is a cost, not an expected return — never present it as profit potential.

Workflow: Premium-selling candidates (CSP / covered call)

  1. screen_market(scan_type="high_iv_rank") — raw candidates.
  2. Filter judgment: prefer liquid large caps the user would own; treat extreme IV (rank > 85 or absolute IV > 100%) as a red flag for binary risk, not an opportunity.
  3. Per candidate: get_expirations(ticker), then get_options_by_delta(ticker, delta=0.20-0.30) at 30-45 DTE.
  4. calculate_probability_of_profit on the chosen strike.
  5. Check the earnings date falls outside the DTE window (step 1 data or get_orats_cores).

Present each candidate as: strike, premium, annualized yield on collateral, breakeven, PoP, and the main risk.

Workflow: GEX / dealer positioning read

  1. get_gex(ticker) — net gamma by strike, flip point, call/put walls.
  2. get_zero_dte(ticker) for SPY/QQQ/SPX intraday context.
  3. get_cross_index_gex() to compare regimes across indices.

Interpretation:

  • Spot above the flip point (positive net gamma): dealer hedging dampens moves; ranges and mean-reversion are favored.
  • Spot below the flip (negative gamma): hedging amplifies moves; expect wider ranges and faster trends.
  • Large call/put walls act as magnets/resistance into expiration — strongest near OPEX, weakest right after.

Workflow: Build and stress a strategy

  1. build_strategy(ticker, strategy_type=...) — legs from live quotes.
  2. analyze_strategy — P&L profile, breakevens, Greeks.
  3. run_scenario_analysis or generate_stress_tests — shock price and IV (at minimum: ±expected move, and an IV crush for post-earnings).
  4. optimize_strategy when the user wants strike selection done for them.
  5. For portfolios: calculate_portfolio_greeks, then get_hedge_recommendations if they ask how to flatten risk.

Quick reference: which tool answers what

Question shapeTool
"Is IV high on X?"get_iv_rank
"Are options overpriced vs how it moves?"get_volatility_risk_premium
"What move is priced in?"calculate_expected_move
"Where are the gamma walls / flip?"get_gex, get_zero_dte
"How does X behave into earnings?"get_earnings_move_analysis
"Find me candidates for strategy Y"screen_market, then per-ticker checks
"Skew / dividends / borrow / HV regime?"get_ticker_analytics(view=...)
"Raw vendor fields"get_orats_cores
"Whole-market picture"get_market_overview, get_vix_snapshot

Error handling

  • 401/403: token invalid or tool above the user's plan tier — name the tool, suggest checking Account → API Access, continue with accessible tools.
  • 429: rate limit — pause and reduce call count; don't hammer.
  • Ticker not found: try search_tickers before concluding no coverage.

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