Ship Decision / 出货决策

When to use

• The user has 2–3 concrete options on the table and can't pick.
• The decision is reversible within a week (otherwise escalate to a longer process).
• They are a solo operator (no committee to satisfy).

When NOT to use

• The user is just venting — they don't want a decision yet, they want to think out loud.
• The decision is legally or financially binding (contracts, equity splits) — those need a lawyer / accountant, not a quick framework.
• They have not yet named the options. Force them to articulate concrete options before applying this skill.

The framework

For each option, fill in four lines only:

1. Cost — hours of focused work + dollars committed.
2. Reversal cost — if this turns out wrong, how many hours to undo?
3. Best-case 30-day signal — what observable thing tells you it's working?
4. Worst-case 30-day signal — what tells you to kill it?

Then apply the regret-minimization tiebreaker:

"In 12 months, which choice will I regret not having tried?"

If reversal cost < 1 week of work AND you have a clear 30-day kill signal → ship the higher-regret option, no further deliberation.

Output format

Always produce a table. Keep cells under 12 words.

Then one sentence on the why.

Worked example

User: "Should I rebuild my landing page in Framer or stick with my hand-coded Next.js page?"

Output:

Framer wins: reversal cost is trivial, and the regret of not testing a dedicated landing tool is higher than 6 hours of migration.

中文版

何时使用

• 用户面前有 2–3 个具体选项，但拿不定主意。
• 决策一周内可逆转（否则需要更长的评估流程）。
• 用户是单兵作战（不需要照顾团队意见）。

何时不使用

• 用户只是在发牢骚——他们想自言自语，不是真要决策。
• 决策有法律或财务约束（合同、股权）——这种需要专业人士。
• 用户还没说清楚选项。强制他们先把选项具体化。

框架

每个选项只填四行：

1. 成本——专注工时 + 投入金额。
2. 反悔成本——如果错了，撤回需要几小时？
3. 30 天最佳信号——什么可观测指标说明它成功了？
4. 30 天最差信号——什么让你决定砍掉？

然后用遗憾最小化做平局裁定：

"12 个月后回头看，没尝试哪个选项我会更后悔？"

若反悔成本 < 1 周 且 有明确的 30 天止损信号 → 选遗憾更大的那个，不再纠结。

输出格式

始终用表格，每格 ≤ 12 个字，最后一句话说明理由。