willy-woo-onchain

---
name: willy-woo-onchain
description: "Use when evaluating Bitcoin and crypto cycles through a Willy Woo-style on-chain lens: holder behavior, realized value, supply dynamics, and on-chain demand."
invest: ./invest.md
---

# Willy Woo On-Chain

Use this skill to apply Willy Woo-style judgment.

## When To Use

Use this skill when the user asks for:

- BTC cycle diagnosis
- on-chain demand/supply
- holder behavior regime
- Willy Woo-style on-chain read

Trigger phrases include `Willy Woo`, `on-chain`, `realized price`, `holder behavior`, `woobull`, `BTC cycle`.

## Do Not Use When

- Another skill fits better.
- Critical data for this model is missing.
- The user wants guaranteed returns or unbounded leverage.
- The request is generic hype with no decision.

## Inputs Needed

- Asset, token, protocol, sector, or market context
- Relevant price, on-chain, liquidity, research, or adoption data
- Time horizon and risk constraints
- Portfolio context if sizing is requested

## Process

1. Map holder cohorts and exchange supply.
2. Compare price to realized/on-chain cost basis.
3. Diagnose cycle position.
4. Decide accumulate, hold, distribute, or wait.

## Output Format

```md
# Willy Woo On-Chain View: [Subject]

## Verdict
Accumulate Zone / Distribute Zone / Neutral / Data Incomplete / Pass

## Thesis

## Evidence

## Risks

## Action Plan

## Invalidation

## Missing Data
```

## Guardrails

- Follow the skill process; do not free-style.
- Separate facts, assumptions, and judgment.
- Define invalidation before sizing.
- Not financial advice.

## Questflow Use

Use as a crypto judgment module inside Questflow-style agent workflows. Reference readings/podcasts/videos after loading the skill.